Intrigue of The Day
Here we are. Could be a sign of a breakthrough in Armenia-Turkey relations. All the main international and local news agencies now report re breaking news on protocols signed by foreign ministries of Armenia and Turkey on establishing diplomatic relations, opening the border, and general normalisation of relations between countries.
In 6 weeks, just in time for a football match (talking about 2nd round of ‘football diplomacy‘) between Turkey and Armenia, political consultations should end and the protocols sent to the parliaments for ratification.
I now read the original protocols in full. Of course, I anticipate that one of the main problems will be the so called 'historical sub-commission'. I personally do not mind joint commission to investigate archives as long as it does not aim to define whether the genocide happened or not. In the protocol, the language is very diplomatic without any clear specifications.
On the other hand, I am glad that there is no (officially stated and signed) connection of Armenia-Turkey with other conflicts' settlement, namely Karabakh. This is a positive sign. Of course, we do not know what is going on backstage, which could lead to other breaking news to come.
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According to the protocols, the border would be opened within two months of its signing. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that the first, which establishes diplomatic relations, could be ratified, but not the second, which develops relations and implements all the other necessary aspects of normalization, i.e. open border, establishment of commissions on key issues. The stumbling blocks in the case of the second, and the most likely to create problems in Armenia and Turkey, are the historical commission and the reaction of Azerbaijan. Let's hope, but even establishing diplomatic relations would be a good first step forward (In my opinion, anyway).
Today Serj Sargsyan made a statement specifically outlining 3 points in the proposals (below - brief summary of his points and my comments in brackets):
1. There is no Karabakh settlement precondition for Armenia-Turkey rapprochement. (agree, important, and I pointed it out above)
2. Instead of historians’ commission, there will be a sub-commission as part of the inter-governmental commission. (I am not sure what the real difference is, because I presume that sub-commission will consist of historians. The key here - what will be the aim and on the agenda?)
3. For the first time, there will be a public debate in Armenia before signing those hugely important foreign relation documents. (Public debate is a right approach, but I do not think it will change anything, unless they want it to change. However, public debate is important to prepare societies in Armenia and Turkey for changes to come. Similar approach should be re Karabakh.)
As a Turk I am in shock!!Either we are in invasion that our masters dictate us a protocol that is unbalanced and we are so helpless that we shall sign it although it is against us or our elected puppets are number one traitors that sell Turkish interest to foreign powers..We open the border in 2 months we will have diplomatic relations..we give all these for free..In return Armenia only accepts the borders...
Armenia will go on 20% azerbaijan land invasion..There is only wishful words in protocol about Armenian invasion...
So sad for us really..very dissapointing..
I hope one day we have goverment that works for our interest not for foreign powers...
Russia welcomes Armenia - Turkey agreement: 'none of the steps set forth in the documents can be interpreted as prejudicing any third party.'
Opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) issued a statement re Armenia-Turkey agreement on protocols. I am glad that they did not use the “sell-out” wording, instead providing a constructive assessment of the documents: welcoming the rapprochement, and pointing out some 'problematic’ issues need to be considered.
ANC believes that the settlement of Armenian-Turkish relations “stems from the interests of the two countries and peoples and will contribute to peace and stability in the region”. The protocols on establishing diplomatic relations and the development of bilateral relations between Armenia and Turkey are a “significant advance in this direction”, says the statement. However, the ANC finds it unacceptable the point on establishment of an intergovernmental subcommittee of the Armenian and Turkish historians, which "casts doubts on the very fact of the Genocide". They are also concerned about the condition of stipulating the ratification of these documents by parliaments of both countries, "allowing Serj Sargsyan to share the responsibility for creating a subcommittee with the parliament, and for Turkey - on the pretext of unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh problem - to delay the ratification and thus postpone the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border."
Useful example, how politicians try to outline "objective historical" facts; Russian experiment:
ПУТИН В ПОЛЬШЕ, 3 СЕНТЯБРЯ 2009 г., ВЛАДИМИР НАДЕИН
http://www.ej.ru/?a=note&id=9418
КОМУ ДОСТАЛАСЬ ПЛЕСЕНЬ, 2 СЕНТЯБРЯ 2009 г., АЛЕКСАНДР ГОЛЬЦ
http://www.ej.ru/?a=note&id=9415
КАМПАНИЯ ПРИМИРЕНИЯ И ОБЪЯСНЕНИЯ,
1 СЕНТЯБРЯ 2009 г., ЮЛИЯ ЛАТЫНИНА
http://www.ej.ru/?a=note&id=9411
Путин пошел на мировую, 02.09.2009, Борис Соколов
http://www.grani.ru/opinion/sokolov/m.156538.html
I'd recommend reading this opinion piece re Armenia - Turkey agreement:
It's that rear-view mirror again.....
Armenia - Turkey protocols: Moving forward, not forgetting the past
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