World’s financial crisis: How to survive Armenia’s economy?

I remember, after the first signs of the crisis, Armenian officials were quick to deny any dramatic impact of it on Armenia. However, with each passing week, the potential impact of the crisis was becoming so apparent, that tone of the government officials changed, and they started mentioning the possibility of economic downturn in Armenia as a result of the world crisis. Knowing local mentality, I can safely predict that from now on whatever bad happens in Armenian financial-economic field would be blamed on the world crisis. Partly, it would be true, but only partly. There are ways to diminish its impact however. But it requires proper crisis management with a scope of preventive actions. Policy Forum Armenia independent think-tank produced report on Implications of the World’s Financial Crisis for Armenia’s Economy.

We all know that in case of health problems, it’s much more efficient to prevent the disease than to treat it. So is with the economy. Report warns that “recent developments in emerging markets suggest that the crisis-related deterioration of the economic outlook is likely to occur abruptly with little (if any) signs of early warning”. Based on the analyses of specifics of Armenia’s economy and global trends, Policy Forum Armenia offers recommendations on essential “pre-emptive policy response and crisis preparedness efforts”.

Some of the main dangers to Armenian economy may come from: “(1) slowdown in remittances flows, (2) reduction in trade and investment, (3) problems originating from the financial sector, and (4) reduction in official assistance.”

While mentioning “capable Prime Minister”, the report is less convinced with the “relevant agencies—the Central Bank and line ministries” which “have limited capacity and experience to address the potential risks” and questionable coordination between each other and the cabinet.

One of the main recommendations by the Policy Forum Armenia is to establish a Crisis Prevention Team (CPT) “as a high-level policy advisory body to the government. Reporting directly to the Prime Minister, the CPT should consist of economists and financial sector professionals with strong reputation and experience in dealing with crisis countries. To be seen as credible it should include Diaspora and also possibly non-Armenian professionals and should be nonpartisan.”

Full report is available here

Armenian opposition’s “specialised committees”

This very brief news report on meeting held by the opposition Armenian National Congress is lacking details but informative nevertheless. It was decided by the opposition to form “specialised committees” on various aspects of life for the country – foreign policy, economy, legal system etc. They would aim to develop and present to the Congress policies and expert opinions for their relevant fields and on current issues.

I’ve been long in favour of a ‘shadow cabinet’ system (similar to the one operated in the UK by opposition parties) or something along the same line by its essence. It’s been a while that opposition hinted on the idea, and with this announcement on forming “specialised committees” it seems to me they are moving towards that direction, and aim to use the declared hiatus for organisational reforms and developments.

I’d like to see clear policy alternatives for all the important fields of life in Armenia, be that internal or external. I’d like to see people/teams responsible for those fields. These will be the policies and people who – in case of opposition coming to the power – will replace existing policies and people. This will help establishing new culture of transparency of political parties, minimise populism, and contribute to informed decisions made by the electorate, things which are lacking in current Armenia. Assuming, of course, that the policy recommendations (and specialised team members) will not remain ‘for internal consumption only’ but rather result in publicised policy formulations. Providing, of course, that the electorate will be able to exercise its election right which is lacking in current Armenia.

"NO SMOKING" in England

Sign of the times: Pub smokers have to stay outside (picture via BBC)

There were farewell 'smoking' parties last night in many London pubs to say au revoir to smoking a cigarette inside the venues. Formally, law came into force at 6 am Sunday. No smoking is allowed in enclosed public places - cafes, bars, pubs, restaurants, clubs, cinemas, theatres, offices etc. England followed suite of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, where similar regulations were in place for quite some time. Now London is on the same level as New York having total ban of smoking in enclosed public places. However, similar moves towards anti-smoking regulations did not have noticable effect in Paris, with its traditionally smoke-filled cafes and bars. As my French friend said, no one is taking seriously anti-smoking regulations in Paris. I am not even mentioning Yerevan here, since limited public smoking ban adopted couple of years ago was not enforced in practice, as expected. Just like in Paris...

I completely agree with England's Health Secretary Alan Johnson who hailed the initiative as the "single most important public health legislation for a generation", as it intends to cut the deaths from second-hand smoking and curb the rates of cancer. I am not a smoker, and as one may imagine, without even considering public health benefits, on personal level only, I am more than happy with the prospect of spending my evenings out in smoke-free bars. In fact, some of my heavy smoking friends also agreed, in principle, that it's a good measure and it may make them consider cutting down the number of cigarettes per day or even quit smoking for good. On the other hand, government must do more to help people quit smoking.

However, with all my strong opinion in favour of this regulations, I must admit something which I am not proud of, but that's how I feel. Well, I must admit that smoking creates some sort of environment, atmosphere - difficult to describe - shall I say arty, creative, underground, sexy... Yes, I know how bad it sounds, but I find the process of cigarette smoking may be sexy too. And I want to remind that I am a non-smoker and I hated the taste of nicotine when I tried smoking couple of times, just to see what/if I am missing, and I never wanted starting smoking afterwards. But the process of it, the whole aura is a different thing... Who knows, may be in time, we will watch films of current generation, where smoking parties would be considered 'underground' in the same way as drug-using in Warhol's films, and appeal to many people.

Back to the law, there are some smokers' rights campaigners that want to challenge it, but it is clear that they will not have success, battle for smoking is lost. There are hefty fines in place to enforce the regulations: £50 for individual smokers and £ 2500 for owners or managers of the venues. Even though the recent survey showed that British are not as law-abiding as it was assumed ("law-abiding majority is a myth"), London is not a Yerevan, it's not a Paris, and I do not anticipate major problems with the implementation, people will abide the rules (regardless that survey, in my opinion, they are still much more rule-abiding than in many other places, if not the most), and the rules will be enforced.

*Source of pictures: Getty Images