Armenia: ...when the ‘victory’ against transport fare hikes is good news for the authorities

My first comment about the protest action against transport fare hikes in Yerevan was on Twitter on 20th July:

Re transport price hike in #Yerevan - I wonder if genuine anger was encouraged by #Armenia authorities to distract, solve internal conflicts 

I didn’t comment much afterwards. I could see genuine passion of civic activists and non-activists, ordinary people, who were united for a purpose. What I liked the most re anti-fare-hikes civic action: people stepping up to offer free transportation for those in need.

When you then suddenly see most of pro-regime media, ‘stars’, personalities etc. in support of the action, you realise a relatively safe bet is in place here. The support and encouragement from pro-regime forces was so blatant that at times overwhelming. It was in line with what some high level officials wanted. To deal with their internal conflicts over the control and influences. Presidential administration, PM, government, Taron the mayor, ‘chorni Gago’ the minister, other oligarchs or so called owners of these transport lines...

When I heard today Armenia PM effectively supporting civic protests against transport fare hikes, followed by “suspension” of fare hikes, I could not help myself but go back to my earlier tweet.

I don't want to break the heart of activists, ordinary people who genuinely acted against unreasonable and unjustified increase in transport fare. After all the failures when it comes to bigger, REAL problems, e.g. inability to change the ruling regime via election, these small victories give hope to people and motivate them. This is a good and positive factor in itself, indeed.

Unfortunately, you do not see much similar examples when it comes to politically motivated arrests, dependent courts, corruption, protection of rights and freedom. If only such passion and unity occurs and directed to the root cause of problems...

Unfortunately, the ‘victory’ today was a victory against consequence not the cause... This is exactly what the authorities want. Concentrate on secondary things, get distracted from the root causes of the problem(s). Good news for the authorities, after all.

Will Yerevan election bring what Armenia presidential election fails to achieve?

Here we are. Less than a day before crucial Yerevan council and mayor election. This could either be the ‘official’ end of the process started with #armvote13 presidential election in February or its transformation to a different level, if opposition takes control of Armenia capital.

Low numbers for recent rallies of main opposition parties, including HAK (Armenian National Congress party) and ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, are indicative of general mood of disillusionment in political processes in Armenia. Obviously, I am not even considering here any attempt at comparison with gatherings by ruling Republican party, as we all know that people go there by orders rather than voluntarily.

*Hope* for free and fair election may only materialise if the election observers from all opposition parties and civil society stick to their promise of putting aside party or other differences for the task of proper monitoring. In this sense it was good to hear ex-president Ter-Petrosyan calling for the same. However, whether this will turn into reality remains to be seen. Also, good to see so many election observers lined up for the 5th May election.

*Hope* for change will come if silent majority decides to vote and cast their protest vote, just like they did during presidential election in February, despite disillusionment in political parties. We will know about it in a matter of less than 24 hours.

Opposition mayor will be a huge contribution to changes in Armenia. Having Republican party 're-elected' means that we will not witness any substantial changes in the following 4-5 years, only cosmetic ones.

On a personal sympathy level, among all candidates I support Armen Martirosyan for the position of mayor, although quite a few young people in opposition HAK list are also highly sympathetic to me.

So I would urge anyone to go cast their vote and vote for either #barevolution movement “Barev Yerevan” bloc, headed by Armen Martirosyan of opposition Heritage party (of presidential challenger ex-FM Raffi Hovhannisyan), or opposition HAK party lists.

[for a good roundup of Yerevan election process, read Yerevan’s May 5 Election: Stakes and Specifics by Tamara Voskanian in Asbarez]

Intrigue of the Day: Luzhkov's wife Baturina vs. Ashot Eghiazaryan

City Spy

More bad news for Russia's reputed richest woman, construction mogul Yelena Baturina, wife of the ex-Mayor of Moscow.

Following hubby Yury Luzhkov's departure as Mayor - during his tenure, she managed to win many lucrative tenders for city construction projects - the couple announced that they would in future school their teenage daughters Aleona and Olga in London. No sooner had Yelena touched down here than she was reportedly quizzed by British officials at the airport.

Now Baturina, Luzhkov and potash billionaire Suleyman Kerimov are embroiled in a court case in London. They're accused of involvement in a conspiracy against Russian parliament member and businessman Ashot Egiazaryan that saw a hostile takeover of his shares in the redevelopment of the landmark Moskva Hotel in Moscow.

Already, many of Kerimov's assets have been frozen under the £1.5 billion lawsuit filed by rival Egiazaryan in London's arbitration court. Kerimov is battling the freezing order. Watch this space.

*source: London's Evening Standard

Final pre-election rally by Armenia opposition in Yerevan. Very different type of music. Appropriate one.

Finally, very different and appropriate type of music being played at pre-election mayoral campaign rally in Yerevan, where musicians had actually something substantial to say (not your usual la-la-la), and delivered their messages on freedom, change and democracy via music and songs.

Videos below of Mher Manukyan & friends playing at final pre-election rally by opposition Armenian National Congress (Levon Ter-Petrosyan).

Third video is an interview with Mher by Onnik Krikorian.





Interview

Just do it, Mr. President

"1 March was everyone's defeat". "We should start with the new page." This is from Armenia president statement re 28 May national holiday First Republic Day.

Yes, it was a defeat. Yes, we need a new page. You know what to do, Mr. President. For the start - free political prisoners, ensure free elections. Just do it.

Video evidence: Armenia opposition activists attacked in Avan district of Yerevan

Opposition Armenian National Congress activists were attacked today in Yerevan's Avan district while distributing leaflets for 13 May local rally as part of the mayoral election campaign. It was the second attack in two days. Below is a video evidence detailing the attack, as well as three injured women's testimony who were hospitalised. Reports point out at ruling Republican party local members as those responsible for the violence. Some additional details - here.

Armenian police 'in action' at opposition pre-election Yerevan mayor campaign rally

Live reporting by Onnik Krikorian

Yerevan mayoral candidate - Gagik Beglaryan, PhD (!)

Apparently, Gagik Beglaryan (nicknamed Chorni (Black) Gago), Yerevan mayoral candidate from the ruling Republican party, has PhD degree (its Armenian equivalent - “Kandidat Nauk”).

He ‘defended’ his thesis on local governance in 2004. Although 7or.am news outlet states that this fact was mentioned in his official biography, this is not quite true. I could not find any mention of his degree on a Republican party website.

Born in 1964 in Yerevan.In 1985 graduated from the Yerevan Institute of National Economy, obtaining a qualification of economist.In 1985-1987 served in the Army.Since 1987 worked in different branches of economy.1993 was elected deputy of the first convocation of the Supreme Assembly of the RA.Since 2002 is the Chief of Kentron community of Yerevan.Since 2006 is a member of the Republican Party of Armenia.Since 2006 is a memeber of RPA board.Married, has two children.

This info was not available within his bio when he was appointed as Yerevan mayor too (link).

But this is not the whole story.

Guess, who was his scientific supervisor? The answer is... one of our chief sociologists Gevorg Poghosyan, president of discredited Armenian Sociological Association, which conducts various election or politics related exit polls and opinion surveys, frequently under the umbrella of reputable international agencies.

I am so going to trust his surveys for Yerevan municipal election.

*photo - via 7or.am

Heritage will not participate in Yerevan municipal election

Heritage will not participate in Yerevan municipal election. According to A1+, this decision would be formally announced soon. Today at 6pm is a deadline to submit party lists to the electoral commission.

I am not surprised with the decision and could see this coming. Failing to agree re the united list of candidates with the ANC, this is the right decision to make. I am saddened that we won’t see Heritage party’s representatives directly contesting the election as part of the opposition alliance. However, this will diminish the damage to the reputation of Heritage party being heavily criticised from the pro-opposition side and 'supported' by pro-government forces (nothing could be more damaging to the reputation of opposition party than the latter, and the authorities know this perfectly). This will also do less harm to the opposition chances compared with Heritage’s separate participation, as the authorities won’t be able to use them (without their consent, of course) to ‘picture’ free and fair election.

Heritage have representatives in local electoral commissions, and will be important in monitoring the fairness of the process, as this issue should be above all sorts of personal and inter-party quarrels. Having relatively free and fair election in Yerevan would set an important precedent for future elections to come. Armenia needs such precedent.

*photo - via A1+ blog

Ter-Petrosyan – Yerevan mayor? Clever move by Armenian opposition, and good news for democracy in Armenia

Armenia’s first president and opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan will head the list of opposition Armenian National Congress candidates in Yerevan municipal election (= Yerevan mayor election). No. 2 in the list is Stepan Demirchyan. (I do not know if Ter-Petrosyan would step down after winning the election, to make Demirchyan a mayor, but this is not important right now) They will now continue formal consultations with the parliamentary opposition Heritage party for joint participation in election. I do hope that cool heads in the opposition (parliamentary + extra-parliamentary) will prevail to contest the election united.

“This is almost like presidential election, it’s a political election, and winning Yerevan municipal election will amount to regime change and restoration of constitutional order in Armenia” – this would be the main message by opposition directed at electorate. Not quite the regime change, but they have a point.

No one should underestimate the importance of capital Yerevan, where almost half of Armenian population lives. Having elected by free and fair election, Yerevan mayor would become a significant political figure in Armenia to rival president.

This decision puts the spotlight towards Yerevan mayoral election to the highest possible level and importance. This would encourage Yerevan residents to take it seriously and participate in election.

If won by the opposition, this would give us hope that future parliamentary and presidential elections would be freer and fairer, at least in Yerevan, and hopefully in the country as a whole.

I cannot imagine ruling party candidate Gagik Beglaryan (nicknamed Chorni (Black) Gago) winning this election vs Ter-Petrosyan, unless election is falsified. Not only Armenians’, but also the attention of international community would be on Yerevan, and hopefully with Ter-Petrosyan contesting the election, it would be harder, much harder to falsify it again.

This would be THE test for the authorities, and the most practical chance for them to assure Armenian citizens that they want to heal the wounds of 1 March and move forward (along with the release of political prisoners, of course). This would give a chance for real dialogue between opposition and the authorities to take place in Armenia. This could be a good news for democracy in Armenia.

Six years missing from newly appointed Yerevan mayor Gagik Beglaryan bio

Formal bio of newly appointed and soon to be ‘elected’ (on 31 May) Yerevan mayor Gagik Beglaryan (nicknamed Chorni (Black) Gago) does not contain info for around 6 years:

In 1985-1986 served in the Army.
In 1993 was elected member of the parliament.

So what was he doing in 1987-1992???

His brief bio on the ruling Republican party website says that “Since 1987 worked in different branches of economy.” (???)