Defeated in Armenia

P.S. re Armenia fraudulent referendum for new constitution

Regime built on fraud, fear, lies and corruption fits perfectly with the fraud constitution

Yesterday I lost.

I was defeated because I was hoping for the possibility of changes in Armenia using democratic elections and voting. Of course, there was no much hope to start with. A decade of election fraud, corruption and lost opportunities did not leave much space for that hope. But there was this tiny-tiny ray of hope that a breakthrough was nevertheless possible. But no. It was not.

The main reason of imposed by regime changes in the constitution was for current president Serj Sargsyan and his circle to stay in power in a foreseeable future. This referendum served only one goal - regime survival.

Even with artificially inflated by regime participation numbers, such a low official turnout (just above 50%) for constitutional referendum proves just how much this new constitution issue was imposed on people rather than generated by population demand.

This tweet @Kolya_H summed-up the mood on the day of referendum pretty well:

We don't #vote today to make our future brighter, but not to make it inevitably worse. #NO #ArmRef15

It was great to see so many friends, including LGBT, being involved in monitoring of constitutional referendum as observers.

@LusineSaghumyan:

"Though I don't like to emphasize people's sexuality, but need to say many #LGBTQA people are actively involved in observation at #ArmRef15

They fight for a better future in their country"

Local independent election observers and media reps did outstanding job exposing the fraud and fighting for each single vote of citizens to be count. They are my heroes of the day.

But what can intelligent non-corrupted observers do in the face of sheer brutality and attacks?! Culture of intimidation and violence ruled the referendum day, with many observers threatened, bullied, beaten, in the presence of police.

More and more people coming to the conclusion that it is impossible to get rid of current ruling regime in Armenia via elections. I am among those people.

I personally lost any faith in the election system in the presence of current regime.

I am now of opinion that as long as this ruling regime is in place, there is no longer a point in elections or voting. To hope that it will be possible to achieve clean votes for 2017 parliamentary elections is self-deceitful. The very reason why ruling regime imposed this constitution in the first place is to have at least 7 more years (and counting) of steady reign beyond their current formal end dates of 2017/18.

Of course, in 2017 more than 1 party will make it to the parliament. They need a cover of ‘multi-party democracy’. They will also ‘allow’ a proportion of votes for the Diaspora affiliated ARF Dashnaktsutyun political party that served them so well. [read also: Why ARF Dashnaktsutyun in Armenia suck big time] This will also aim to silence the voices of discontent in the Diaspora. Not that those voices were particularly loud, and in some cases instead serving as apologists for current regime, ‘justifying’ their support for referendum by support for parliamentary republic, conveniently 'blinding' themselves re referendum’s real implications.

We were defeated yesterday. I am saying “we" because it includes me, my friends, all those people who want a better future in free independent Armenia. We were gradually and continuously losing it over the last decade. But we don't have to keep losing. In the meantime, Armenia will continue its steady decline until something changes. Until people wake-up. Until public revolt. Youth revolt. Resistance.

I do not know yet which exact strategy will work the best, but I am sure smart creative Armenians, especially of younger generation, will find the right way. Sooner or later.

In the news:

Telling headline on BBC News: Armenia fraud claims mar referendum on constitution

Council of Europe - PACE: Referendum in Armenia was driven by political interests [full statement - here]

Observers statement: ARMENIA: REFERENDUM ASSESSED AS ILLEGITIMATE BY CITIZEN OBSERVERS AND EPDE

Preliminary statement on the conduct of the Constitutional Referendum Citizen Observer Initiative and European Platform for Democratic Elections


For background reading on additional implications of this constitutional referendum:
New draft of Armenia Constitution effectively bans same-sex marriage

Re Heritage MP Zaruhi Postanjyan CoE question: It's not about question per se, she is making a point!

True, making unsubstantiated claims - even if to humiliate a person who deserves it - is not necessarily my type of thing, or to my liking. True, I wish Zaruhi used other than casino question to humiliate president Serj Sargsyan, because there are many more substantiated claims one could have made for those purposes. But the casino question is not the point here.


The whole political system in Armenia is a joke. The real scandals are not being discussed and dealt with by politicians or mainstream media, only the cheap shots, tricks, conspiracies and gossips. Some went as far as to resort to racist remarks towards Zaruhi:

Lawmakers from Sarkisian’s Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) were particularly furious with Postanjian’s embarrassing verbal attack, comparing it with high treason. “Today Zaruhi Postanjian was more of a Turk than any Turk, more of an Azerbaijani than any Azerbaijani,” one of them, Karen Avagian, wrote on his Facebook account. 

I also read in quite a few places on Facebook that this is 'damaging to Armenia's reputation'. Really?! So it's because of this kind of stupid or not so questions Armenia reputation gets tarnished? I do not think so.

Imagine Zaruhi is asking the most refined politically relevant question in a calm intelligent manner... And? Do you have any doubts what the answers to those questions would be? It will be the usual blah blah blah by Serj. Don't get me wrong. I do agree in usefulness of 'real question' challenging, but this is just another legitimate tactic of defying the authorities.

Concentrating on 'casino question' is missing the point here.

The real point Zaruhi was making was not in a casino question but right before that when she was explaining why any other questioning would be irrelevant, i.e. fraudulent elections that keep this person (Armenia president Serj Sargsyan) & co in power.

This is very relevant to CoE and EU too, as by accepting the election results they gave Serj the legitimacy. Something they were hoping to get back in return to his 'European agenda' promises which turned out to be another farce of its own.
***
Recommended reading (AM): Զարուհին չէր կարող չասել այն, ինչ ասաց

From my archive: Zaruhi Postanjyan: “Fearless In Face Of Authority”

How Armenia ruling regime and Putin’s Russia fooled the EU over Association Agreement

Surprise. Shock. U-turn... Yet if we look at the bigger picture, including developments of last few months, this turn of events will not seem that surprising.

First sign that we are going to witness what we eventually witnessed, i.e. Armenia president announcing (3 September 2013) country’s intention to join the Russia led Customs/Eurasian union, was... yes-yes, the anti-gender-equality-law-hysteria.

Armenian government proposed the law on gender equality, as part of its European commitments, made sure it was approved by the under control parliament (no efforts needed, just order), then along with Russia provoked and contributed to the backlash against the very law they adopted by equalling “gender” with “European amorality” and “LGBT”. To note, women's groups, including Women's Resource Centre that became target of orchestrated hate campaign and LGBT rights groups had no role whatsoever in developing or promoting the law.

Never before Armenian public underwent such an intoxicating dosage of anti-EU hysteria with propaganda machine making all the possible efforts for EU to be associated with "amorality", "destruction of traditional Armenian families", "making your children gay"... You got the picture.

While this puppet show was clearly governed from Moscow, Armenia authorities not only did nothing to explain the benefits of their ‘EU integration’ policy, a policy they ‘worked towards’ for the last 4 years and seemingly (only seemingly!) committed to, but all their under control media, including Public TV, was engaged in an anti-EU campaign.

They used this ‘hate the EU’ campaign to prepare the public for the announcement of 3rd September.

Since the introduction of Eastern Partnership, It has always been the case that Russia dislikes (to put it mildly) the initiative and will do whatever possible to derail it. Armenia’s dependence on and close ties with Russia was never a secret.

It’s inconceivable to believe that Armenia authorities committed to EU and went so far - only steps away to sign (initial) the Association agreement, including deep and comprehensive free trade agreement - without Russia's blessing.

They waited the right moment to announce the U-turn as a diplomatic coup triumph for Russia and a scare tactic directed primarily to Ukraine.

For Armenia authorities, hardly bearers of or devotees to European values, the main reason why they entered this game was because in return they received EU/West legitimacy, despite fraudulent elections. The only things that matter to them are power, money and travel enjoyment. With Russian help, they made EU to believe that they are committed pro-Europeans. Ha!

Now they can present themselves as victims of Putin’s pressure: ‘poor Armenian authorities, they simply had no other option but to succumb to Russia’s pressure.’ How convenient.

This way they will try to avoid EU sanctions and may get something light in return. You know, the way they like the concept of ‘human rights light’. Now it will be ‘EU light’. Something that won't put too much responsibility on them in terms of commitments by still giving all the main benefits in terms of keeping power, money and travel. Win/win for Armenia ruling regime and Putin’s Russia. Big fail for the EU.

Armenia ruling regime clearly demonstrates how unreliable international partners non-elected authorities could be. Time wasters.

Armenia: in need of REVOLUTION

This was the end of #armvote13: the process that started with the 2008 presidential election, with another wave post February 2013 election, only to finally die out on the 5th of May Yerevan election.

From year to year, from election to election: same process, same violations, same sh*t... and same (plus/minus the level of bizarreness) outcome. Non-ending story of f*-ed Armenian elections.

I became convinced that with current ruling regime in place, no change is possible via election. But it’s not just a matter of the authorities.

Even accounting for massive electoral fraud, the numbers received by main opposition parties are so small (even compared with previous elections) that should ring an alarm bell and serve them a food for thought. Armenian opposition could collectively write a bestseller: “How to lose electorate”.

True, Armenia has changed since 2008. With the use of online social networks, and particularly Facebook, and some influential offline actions, the voice of civil society and human rights activists is louder and more influential than it was ever before.

In addition, Diaspora is becoming (finally!) more aware and involved in current day Armenia issues, such as democracy, corruption, human rights. And unprecedented in numbers Diaspora observer mission during Yerevan election is a good sign that needs to develop further.

Ironically, European observers with their robotic “in line” and “improvements” concluding remarks, became a part of the problem. Not only they completely discredited themselves, by becoming a laughing stock among Armenian citizens, but turned into an obstacle to progress by effectively legitimising fraudulent elections.

Instead of flirting with the authorities, EU (and USA) should stand firm and demand - unequivocally - systematic changes in all fields of life. Not improvements. But radical changes. And without all these blackmail talks that this move will push Armenia more towards Russia. Armenia will steadily turn into ‘Russia’ without such changes anyway.

In the meantime... people are leaving the country. Armenia is being increasingly deserted of its potential. As @Golden_Tent rightfully pointed out on Twitter, “for the next 4 years, all voting in Armenia will be done with feet and one-way tickets.”

Armenia needs revolution. Revolution of minds. Cultural revolution. Sexual revolution. Revolution that will change the regime in Armenia before using such democratic means as election. Revolution that will swipe out the factor of “թաղի տղերք” [“neighborhood guys”] that became so defining in this and all other elections.

Will Yerevan election bring what Armenia presidential election fails to achieve?

Here we are. Less than a day before crucial Yerevan council and mayor election. This could either be the ‘official’ end of the process started with #armvote13 presidential election in February or its transformation to a different level, if opposition takes control of Armenia capital.

Low numbers for recent rallies of main opposition parties, including HAK (Armenian National Congress party) and ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, are indicative of general mood of disillusionment in political processes in Armenia. Obviously, I am not even considering here any attempt at comparison with gatherings by ruling Republican party, as we all know that people go there by orders rather than voluntarily.

*Hope* for free and fair election may only materialise if the election observers from all opposition parties and civil society stick to their promise of putting aside party or other differences for the task of proper monitoring. In this sense it was good to hear ex-president Ter-Petrosyan calling for the same. However, whether this will turn into reality remains to be seen. Also, good to see so many election observers lined up for the 5th May election.

*Hope* for change will come if silent majority decides to vote and cast their protest vote, just like they did during presidential election in February, despite disillusionment in political parties. We will know about it in a matter of less than 24 hours.

Opposition mayor will be a huge contribution to changes in Armenia. Having Republican party 're-elected' means that we will not witness any substantial changes in the following 4-5 years, only cosmetic ones.

On a personal sympathy level, among all candidates I support Armen Martirosyan for the position of mayor, although quite a few young people in opposition HAK list are also highly sympathetic to me.

So I would urge anyone to go cast their vote and vote for either #barevolution movement “Barev Yerevan” bloc, headed by Armen Martirosyan of opposition Heritage party (of presidential challenger ex-FM Raffi Hovhannisyan), or opposition HAK party lists.

[for a good roundup of Yerevan election process, read Yerevan’s May 5 Election: Stakes and Specifics by Tamara Voskanian in Asbarez]

#Barevolution Faces of Resistance: students strike pics of the day(s)

These are Pictures of the Day(s) for me. Faces of growing resistance to Armenia’s ruling regime. Faces of #Barevolution [‘Revolution of Hello’ - as the presidential challenger, ex-FM Raffi Hovhannisyan dubbed the movement for change that is being developing since February election]

They are a relatively small group of students. For now. A sign of revival of long forgotten spirit of students strike and protest in Armenia. But it’s so liberating to see these students defying the barriers, climbing over a fence, jumping out of a window to join the students strike. It’s liberating.

Oh, and yes, showing a certain gesture to the system.

*picture by Hetq.am (FB page)

© PanARMENIAN Photo / Hrant Khachatryan

© PanARMENIAN Photo (FB page) / Hrant Khachatryan

Armenia: from the most predictable and ‘safe’ election to slap in the face for ruling regime

The outcome was predictable. Incumbent president won. Well, “officially”. Armenia's ruling regime would never voluntarily *ok* 2nd round of election as this would be = defeat for them. Only the revolt of the masses could possibly force such transformation.

The predictability of Armenian elections is becoming a painful sign to the extent that at times I wonder: why bother following the news if you can simply use material from previous years, copy paste and change the date. From the process of voting to the outcome and international observers’ (OSCE/ODIHR) verdict. Same old, same old. 

As soon as polling stations closed, the results of regime-sponsored 'exit poll' were announced, giving incumbent president 58%, and Raffi 32%. To remind, exit polls in Armenia are conducted by fake Gallup with the help of discredited Armenian Sociological Association. Basically, a double fake.

The only reason Armenia authorities started using fake Gallup is to provide sense of legitimacy for their f*-ed up election, a kind of PR coup for both internal [psychological intervention to prepare for pictured percentages] and external consumption [‘hey, here we are, we commissioned ‘exit polls’, with the “Gallup” name on it’ - a successful tactic, as this gets subsequently cited by international media, without any checking of the real source of such ‘exit poll’]. 


And... surprise-surprise: With all polling stations cast, the preliminary official results are 58.6% for incumbent vs 36.7% for Raffi.

Numerous images of intentionally invalidated ballot papers (as a sign of protest) could be found on Facebook or media reports. Ironically, this helped incumbent to increase his %.



The most sensational result of the night, however, was a crushing defeat of incumbent in Armenia’s second city Gyumri, with Raffi getting a massive 70% (!)

Even with official numbers (36.7%) I do not trust, this protest vote for Raffi is more than I expected. And here is hoping, after all.

This is no less than a big slap in the face for incumbent president. Plus, as ‏@Akhtamar89 added: "@unzippedblog Good! It might also be a slap in the face for all those who withheld their votes or gave into bribes thinking they've no voice
".

While I sympathise Raffi and endorsed him for the election, he is not necessarily your typical fighter figure for mass mobilisation. Unless people took to the streets and make Raffi fight for his votes, it’s difficult to imagine any changes in election results.

Nevertheless, a sheer volume of protest votes will act as a signal for the authorities that they are getting too close to the boiling point (if not reached already), and the reforms are inevitable. Armenia will change as a result of this election.
***
And in case you were wondering, a predictable verdict of international observers: election was "in line..." and a "step forward". [From friend’s FB status : ODIHR. Oh, dear.]

Their attitude was summed up perfectly by this hilarious Twitter account @OSCEIntObserver: "We don't understand what all the fuss is about. Isn't #Armenia just a Russian exclave? Like Kaliningrad? #armvote13"

Another classic from ‏@OSCEIntObserver (in response to my tweet that I started working on election related blog post): "@unzippedblog You should do what we do. Our report was written long before election day. #armvote13 #Armenia"


And the video of the day. How activists stole the show at international observers’ press conference. 




P.S. For more updates and insight on #armvote13 and more, see my Twitter page @unzippedblog


Armenia: Theatre of absurd called “presidential election” (or shall I say “assassination”?)

On Twitter, I said I was not sure who could have ordered this ‘assassination attempt’ towards one of presidential candidates Paruyr Hayrikyan but speculations and conspiracy theories were abound. I could not imagine Armenia authorities would want to postpone the election as no candidate, let alone Hayrikyan, pose any real risk to them. PR? Provocation? But why? Framing others?

These were the question marks I posed in the immediate aftermath of this ‘assassination attempt’. Now these question marks reduced to one: PR.

The only person who (at least initially) gained PR-wise was the ‘victim of assassination’ himself. The only possible change this may result in, if at all: some re-ordering in the placing of election runners-up (No.2, No.3 or No.4).

And here we are: 'Victim of assassination' #Hayrikyan won't seek #armvote13 delay. Of course, he won't. It's his 'star moment' #Armenia #theatre [one of my latest Twitter updates @unzippedblog]

Apologies for cynicism, but the ‘victim’ got the best opportunity of public exposure that no campaign would have ever provided to him.

He got a prime time coverage focusing on his persona, with almost non-stop ‘exclusive’ interviews during which recovering Hayrikyan put forward versions of the incident from the strange to the bizarre.

While initially quite a few activists, commentators were more supportive of Hayrikyan, things have changed as soon as he started elaborating on the possible reasons and details of this incident.

He blamed ‘special agents’, current or former KGB or whatever. He claimed he started remembering the face of the ‘assassin’, and he reckons the ‘assassin’ is not Armenian because... he (the ‘assassin’ that is) didn’t say a word in Armenian (!) So not only that ‘special agent assassin’ didn’t cover his face but he was expected to have a lovely chat with perhaps a cup of tea with the intended ‘target’...

Even “assassination attempts” during this election are extremely boring. And very safe, indeed. [I am happy that it was safe, of course, but that’s not the point]

You want the reality show where borders between fiction, theatre and the reality are hardly discernible? Welcome to Armenia. The whole country turned into a big theatre with a play on stage called #armvote13.

Prepare your popcorn. Seat back. Relax. And press the button. Or do not.

In the meantime, the best to come out of this election is DIY satire, internet meme and similar that Facebook and other online forums are full with.

Armenia’s incumbent president: why bother campaigning?

Looking at Serj’s campaigning one may wonder why he bothers to campaign at all? The only reason he campaigns is to show the international community that this election is not a farce but rather ‘exemplary’ one. Ironically, with each passing day, he is making more and more mistakes, to put it mildly, damaging further his reputation. Not that this decreases his chances to be elected. With or without people’s votes.

Today, marking the Army Day, a woman managed to approach the president and started complaining about social hardship she is living in. This has angered Serj. Seriously. He had nothing better to say than get back to the woman and complain arrogantly that with her coming here and crying she is spoiling the holiday. This is more like a քուչի տղա response, rather than president’s.

Regardless how annoying or inappropriate this woman’s complain may seem to him, this is absolutely not a way any official, let alone president, should speak to the very people he (supposedly) serves.

Հայոց բանակի կազմավորման 21-րդ տարեդարձի առթիվ ՀՀ բարձրաստիճան պաշտոնյաները այսօր այցելել են Եռաբլուր պանթեոն, ծաղկեպսակներ դրել արցախյան հերոսամարտում զոհվածների շիրիմներին: Իսկ մինչ  Սերժ Սարգսյանի գլխավորությամբ բարձրաստիճան պաշտոնյաները կատարեցին իրենց պարտքը եւ ցանկանում էին լքել տարածքը, նրանց մոտեցավ մի կին եւ խնդրեց, որպեսզի լսեն իրեն, հաղորդում է Galatv.am-ը: Սերժ Սարգսյանին մոտեցած կինը հայտնեց, որ ապրում է ծայրահեղ ծանր պայմաններում: Նախ թիկնապահները փորձեցին հեռացնել նրան ճանապարհից, սակայն կնոջը հաջողվեց մոտենալ, իսկ երբ կինը լացակումած պատմում էր իր ապրելակերպի մասին, Սերժ Սարգսյանը արձագանքեց. «Եկել ես ստեղ, լաց ես լինում, մեր տոնը խանգարում ես, որ ի՞նչ անես»:

Read also:

“Towards secure Armenia”: Public admission of fail with bizarre stage-managed election campaign launch

and

It's Christmas Day in West and end of an era in Armenia politics

“Towards secure Armenia”: Public admission of fail with bizarre stage-managed election campaign launch

“Towards secure Armenia”- this is Armenia’s ruling republican party slogan for presidential campaign. Effectively, this is a very public admission that president failed in ensuring one of his main duties, as per Constitution:

Article 49 The President of the Republic shall be the guarantor of the independence, territorial integrity and security of the Republic of Armenia. 

Their campaign launched with a music video where everyone is happy smiling and dancing literally everywhere. It depicts a disturbing picture of nation under drugs. The only dancing part that - unfortunately! - looks believable is dancing in the airport before the plane’s take off. “Towards secure Armenia”? Ha!

The very threat to the security of Armenia is a current political establishment headed by republican party with formally accepted neo-nazi style ideology. A party whose high level officials, including the spokesman, publicly and unashamedly support terrorism against a group of their own citizens and spread intolerance and discrimination towards anyone who does not fit into their ‘national standards’.

Never before my friends and relatives in Armenia were so indifferent to presidential election. It’s no news for them, just a time for occasional mocking (in a #funnysad way) looking at the clownery named “campaign” (with few exceptions of Heritage party leader, ex-FM Raffi Hovhannisyan and ex-PM Hrant Bagratyan).

Just how fake everything connected with the ruling republican party is perfectly illustrated in this video.... Not that we needed any additional proof. 

Here in this video, unzipping a blatant stage-management of the campaign, school children were trained to greet current Armenia president. The video then continues to present slightly different version of ruling party's presidential election campaign music clip. Closer to the reality.



And in case you were nostalgic of Soviet/Stalinist style “Dear party leader” nauseating lines, watch this pretty #funnysad clip from one of week No.1 election campaign meetings of current president Serj Sargsyan. I will never look at my childhood favourite Cheburashka the same way again. Not only they ruin the country. They ruin my childhood memories too.

It's Christmas Day in West and end of an era in Armenia politics

Here we are. It's Christmas Day in West, and now officially end of an era in Armenian politics, as ex-president and leader of (what remains of) opposition HAK group Levon Ter-Petrosyan formally withdrew his candidacy from upcoming presidential election citing age (68). Not surprising, considering the circumstances. Considering the fact that over the last 5 years he failed in building up a viable opposition force. He failed in contributing to the rise of new leaders ready and able to challenge the status quo on a national level.

That flirting - unashamedly - with oligarch-led party and the oligarch himself illustrated the impotency of those on the scene and inability to lead. Ironically, Gagik Tsarukyan (oligarch head of the BHK [‘Prosperous Armenia’] party) became ‘the only hope’ for the opposition. It was painful to see how political figures downgraded to become oligarch-pleasers.

Here is hoping this ‘end of an era’ will stimulate the rise of new political leaders to match an increasing importance and influence of civic activists in Armenia.

As for the February presidential election, the only candidate that I will support is the leader of Heritage party, Armenia ex-FM Raffi Hovhannisyan. Although I disagree with Raffi on number of internal and foreign issues, and criticised his populism in past, currently he is my favourite Armenian politician (compared to others in public view). I also respect immensely his post-DIY stance, when he came out in support, even though it was obvious this would not be in line with the majority of average voters and in defiance with the prevalent anti-gay hysteria. I will never forget his stance.

But there should be no doubt that Serj is the winner. I can safely say Armenia is heading to the most predictable presidential election. This time, he won't need any violations, any fraud. This could be a textbook example of 'free and fair elections' in Armenia. It will be 'picture perfect'.

‘Free and fair’ only from a technical point of view but never by essence.

Balloon explosion tragedy at Armenia ruling Republican party pre-election rally exposed blatant disregard to human lives

RFE/RL: “At least 144 people were hospitalized with burns after mass explosions of campaign balloons during a pre-election concert and rally held in Yerevan’s main square by President Serzh Sarkisian’s Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) late on Friday.” 

My Question No.1: 

What on earth these balloons were filled in with?

Unconfirmed reports suggest that instead of helium they were filled in with cheap gas-like substances. I am inclined to believe this version.

My Question No. 2: 

Why after such huge incident "concert" continued? And why after such incident Armenia president went on to deliver his planned pre-election speech as if nothing happened?

No, it is NOT always OK to say: “Show must go on”.

RFE/RL reports: “President Sarkisian addressed the crowd shortly afterwards. He did not mention the unprecedented emergency in his speech. The concert continued after the speech.” 

BBC reports: “Despite the incident, President Serge Sarkisian went on to address thousands of people at the rally. The balloons were decorated with the governing Republican Party's slogan "let's believe in change". 

My verdict: 

What a blatant disregard to human lives!!
***
I am extremely sad and angry. My thoughts are with injured people...

PR deceit: not real but ‘fake Gallup’ commissioned to conduct exit poll for Armenian parliamentary election

There was a big PR by government controlled Armenia TV channel that they have signed up with the Gallup to conduct exit poll for upcoming Armenian parliamentary election. All the main headlines implied that the world renowned US company will conduct exit poll in Armenia, thus putting behind it its reputation.

Even with the ‘real’ Gallup, I would have concerns re polling, as taking into account local circumstances, it is very important who conducts the polls in the field. If it’s one of discredited sociological groups in Armenia, then even with the best Gallup methodology, I would not trust their results.

7or.am revealed, however, that it’s not ‘real' Gallup that is going to conduct the exit poll and pre-election survey, but the ‘fake’ one.

This is a ‘real’ Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/corporate/115/About-Gallup.aspx

This is a ‘fake’ Gallup: former “Gallup International Association”. Kancho Stoychev who signed the agreement with the Armenia TV is their Vice-President (Bulgaria). [http://www.gallup-international.com/en/who_we_are/the_board] Despite name change [“Worldwide Independent Network of Market Research”], they still contain references to “Gallup” within their website.

According to one Wikipedia reference, [US-based] Gallup Inc. and [Switzerland-based] Gallup International Association (GIA) were involved in a legal dispute over the use of “Gallup” name. In 2010, GIA merged with the market research company WIN (Worldwide Independent Network). They are currently called “Worldwide Independent Network of Market Research”.

It’s the US-based company, not the Swiss one, that is famous for Gallup Poll.

This is not what we will be getting for Armenian parliamentary election.

Armenia: garbage 'ballot' box

Ballot box = garbage bin? This is how some in Armenia view the process of "elections" here.

A sign on garbage bin in Yerevan reads: "ballot box"

*picture - via @reporter_arm

“Sorry” seems to be the hardest word for Oskanian & co. Preparations for 1-March-part-2 underway?

Ha! Vartan Oskanian's statement (via Civilitas Foundation): “Yesterday I submitted my application for membership to the Prosperous Armenia Party [...]"

The expected happens. No surprises here. Pro-notorious-ex-president-Kocharyan Armenia ex-FM Vartan Oskanian formally joins oligarch-lead pro-Kocharyan party to participate in upcoming parliamentary (and more?) elections.

As expected. No surprises... Civilitas and Oskanian 'rock'... in a very expected direction...

I already posted why Oskanian cannot be trusted in his ‘commitment’ to”free and fair” elections. [Re: Armenia ex-FM Vartan Oskanian and “free and fair” elections]

Here is a list of some of 1 March lies that Oskanian did not clear himself off. In fact, he did not even apologize. For a start. The very least he could have done. Sorry would not be enough, but apparently even “Sorry” is a very hard word for Oskanian.

And here is a video of interview with CNN where Salpi Ghazarian, director of Civilitas Foundation (then Asst. to Armenian Foreign Minister Oskanian), was effectively ‘justifying’ the use of force against protesters by putting forward the notion of “armed protestors”.



They should be ashamed of their actions. Instead, they are trying to play a democracy game.

Until they come clean re their role in 'rationalising' or 'justifying' previous election fraud (example - presidential election of 2003) and the 1 March post-election bloodshed, it will be impossible for me to believe their words and intentions re democracy, human rights, and free and fair elections.

It's pity, so many good people work for Civilitas... For example, CivilNet.TV is doing OK job in covering various important, including not so mainstream issues. However, with all these connections, I can’t help myself but wonder whether this is all part of a bigger game, and all those good guys who are currently part of Civilitas unwittingly became part of the 'game’...

If we add to the picture an introduction of the law in the Armenian parliament (adopted in its first readings) making the use of army “in case of emergency” effectively “legitimate” for internal affairs then... It is not impossible to suspect that this looks more like preparations for a version of 1-March-part-2.

Re: Armenia ex-FM Vartan Oskanian and “free and fair” elections

In a statement released by Civilitas Foundation, Armenia ex-FM Oskanian didn’t deny & left open the possibility of his alliance with the Prosperous Armenia party led by oligarch Tsarukyan. This party is widely regarded in Armenia as affiliated with the ex-president Robert Kocharyan whose human rights record is the most appalling among all the presidents of independent Armenia. [Civilitas Foundation is founded by Oskanian who served as Foreign Minister during Kocharyan’s reign in power]

[...] My own political engagement is driven by this conviction. Talk about my involvement with the Prosperous Armenia party is not without basis. I have had such discussions with the Prosperous Armenia party as well as with other political forces. At this time, I have still not made a decision, and believe there is still time to do so. Political processes, however, may accelerate my decision.[...]

Says Oskanian: “I firmly believe that it is of utmost importance that Armenia hold free and fair parliamentary elections.”

[...] Armenia needs serious and deep reforms and I’m convinced that all our citizens share this belief. Reforms and change can only happen when there is a new political configuration in the National Assembly. And such political balance can only be assured through free and fair elections. [...]

Sorry, still cannot trust your words re commitment to ”free and fair” elections. Memories of 2008 & so still not far behind. Indeed, we witnessed your ‘commitment’ to “free and fair” elections from 2003 onwards culminated in 2008.

Truly, Mr Oskanian (or shall we say Kocharyan?), you must try much-much harder to make your statements sound believable.

"От перемены мест слагаемых..." - re: so called sackings and resignations in Armenia ruling circle

In case you have a (even the tiniest possible) thought that what's being happening now - number of high profile reshuffles, including police chief and speaker of the parliament - may somehow positively or negatively impact your life or that of your country... It will be the same. Nothing has really changed. A bit better, a bit worse, doesn’t much matter. This reshuffle has a very specific internal meaning and importance. Internal in terms of power reshuffle within the ruling party and administration in the run-up of the elections.

Have a look at the ‘new’ police chief who replaced the 'old' one. It’s the same guy who instead of tackling root causes of violence in the army (as deputy MoD), started blaming everything on... 'foreign-sponsored groups' who has been voicing their concerns re status quo in the army, threatening with 'legal actions', a claim repeated afterwards by the minister himself. I am not even going into details of his 'heroic' track record. You may have thought that Alik was the worst possible choice for police chief. Think again. It’s very difficult to decide who is better here: Alik or Vova? “Better” is not the word to be used. It’s from worse to worse. 

In its essence, it’s all about elections, loyalty, although have to be honest, I am not entirely sure that Vova Gasparyan (new police chief) is any less or more loyal than Alik Sargsyan (now former police chief).

But above all, its about their perceived ability to “secure" winning the upcoming election. What the word “secure” means in Armenian election context, no need to explain. It’s pretty self-explanatory.

Ironically, now ex-speaker Hovik Abrahamyan (nicknamed "muk" - AM for mouse) will be heading - yet again - the election HQ of the ruling Republican party. Some say this was his ‘punishment’ for alleged alliances with (pro-Kocharyan) Prosperous Armenia party and ex-president Kocharyan himself. Who cares?

There is an expression that describes what's being happening perfectly. I do not know why but I like saying it in Russian: От перемены мест слагаемых сумма не меняется.

#1mar - Yerevan, Armenia, 3 years on...

#1mar is 'official' Twitter hashtag proposed by opposition activists to refer to live news / events / commentary marking the 3rd anniversary of 1 March 2008 bloody crackdown on the opposition in the aftermath of falsified presidential election in Armenia. Depending on events, I will probably write a more comprehensive blog post later today, tomorrow or some time this week. Until then, follow my twitter updates @unzippedblog and live news (via Twitter) from Yerevan, Armenia re #1mar.
***
UPDATE 2 March 2011:  BBC video report

Diaspora ‘աչքակապություն’ of parliament. Double act of non elective representativeness in Armenia?

Of course, this “presidential idea” voiced by - infamous for all the wrong reasons - ‘Diaspora minister’ Hranush Hakobyan, has for now more of a ‘exploring the grounds’ and populist (‘աչքերին թոզ փչել’) meaning. But it may potentially develop into something more significant with the implications for future.

Some observers were quick to dismiss it as an “idea” to divert people’s attention from real issues.

Few points for now.

As if having one effectively non elected parliament was not enough, making Constitutional changes to formalise the archaic system of non-representative pseudo-parliamentarians, similar to British ‘House of Lords’ is truly a “Forward, Armenia” (of course, British citizens, unlike Armenians, have elective democracy too).

This is like creating yet another stillborn, aka presidential “Public Council” that was established under the pretentious/populist/made-up (delete as appropriate) “idea” of making people's voices heard. Not that anyone believed it.

I can’t imagine this Diaspora chamber of parliament, or whatever, will ever get materialised, but - even if theoretically - this “idea” may have a serious implications of making a total mess in Diaspora-Armenia relations, as well as within Diaspora.

The first and the only presidential election in modern Armenia considered as free and fair

Anniversary

16 October 1991

Levon Ter-Petrosyan was popularly elected the first President of the newly independent Republic of Armenia on 16 October 1991.

This was the first and the only presidential election in modern Armenia considered as free and fair.

I will keep this anniversary in my Calendar until Armenia citizens regain their right for free elections. Not on paper, but in practice.