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Friday, 22 February 2008

Students under target

Many students in Yerevan decided to follow yesterday’s rally appeal to boycott classes and join the rally in Liberty sq. However, according to Radio Liberty afternoon broadcast, since early morning there is a visible police presence in/around main university campuses in Yerevan. According to radio reports, in many university campuses police does not allow students to leave the building, even during breaks. Several students were taken to police station, but will probably be released on administrative charges. There was a report of at least one incident of police dispersing students’ march to Liberty sq, without physical means. Despite all these obstacles, hundreds of students joined the rally in Liberty sq today.

Armenia: Violence at Polling Stations Mars Elections

Assailants Target Opposition Activists, Observers and Journalists

A statement by Human Rights Watch

The Armenian government should investigate alleged assaults on election observers and journalists that marred the presidential election on February 19, 2008, Human Rights Watch said today. According to victim testimonies taken by Human Rights Watch, assailants beat and threatened opposition party activists, domestic observers, and journalists who attempted to document election fraud at polling stations during the presidential vote. "These election-day attacks targeted the very people trying to ensure the integrity of Armenia's vote," said Holly Cartner, Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch. "The Armenian government should carry out independent and speedy investigations to ensure justice is served and to send the message that intimidation won't be tolerated."

On February 20, the Central Election Commission declared Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian the winner of the elections with 52.8 percent of the vote. Sargsian had the backing of current president Robert Kocharian. Armenia's first president Levon Ter-Petrosian was the main opposition challenger and won 21.5 percent, according to official tallies.

In nine cases documented by Human Rights Watch, assailants intimidated, threatened, and even violently attacked opposition party activists, domestic observers and journalists at eight polling stations in and around the capital, Yerevan. Victims variously described their assailants as "big guys," "athletic," "tough," and apparently supporters of Sargsian. Most victims had been attempting to expose what they believed to be violations of electoral rules, such as incorrect voters' lists, intimidation of voters, violations of the right to a secret ballot, and ballot-box stuffing. None of the victims was able or willing to return to the polling station to continue observing the voting.

In several incidents, the assaults took place in the presence of police and polling station officials who did not intervene, and in one case a police officer appeared to assist the assailants. Some victims reported the attacks to police, who are investigating.

Human Rights Watch called on the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to look into election-related violence and ensure that its final report on the vote records these incidents.

In one case documented by Human Rights Watch, assailants grabbed a Ter-Petrosian proxy (a candidate's authorized representative) at a polling station in Yerevan, forced her into a car and drove her to a remote area. There, they beat her in the head and face, threatened to rape her and attack her family, and abandoned her. She eventually made her way to a police station where she filed a complaint. She is still suffering from headaches and other medical repercussions of the attack.

At least three journalists were attacked. Lusine Barsegian of the newspaper Haikakan Zhamankak was beaten, and had her camera and voice recorder stolen, when she attempted to document what she believed to be intimidation of voters at a polling station in Yerevan's Erebuni district. A cameraman from the independent A1+ television station was beaten and had his camera taken at the same polling station. Two domestic election observers, Armen Matirosian, a member of parliament from the opposition Heritage party, and Zarui Postandjian, an observer from a nongovernmental organization, were also attacked at this polling station after they tried to raise alleged election violations with polling station officials.

The OSCE election monitors stated that the elections were held "mostly in line" with international commitments.

Tens of thousands of Ter-Petrosian supporters took to the streets in downtown Yerevan on February 20 and 21 to protest the outcome of the elections and what they believe to be widespread electoral fraud.

"The Armenian authorities should ensure that no harm is done to peaceful demonstrators," said Cartner. "Armenia claims to be a democratic country, and that means allowing people to exercise their right to freedom of assembly."

Armenia has a history of flawed elections and harassment of opposition parties. In March 2003, Human Rights Watch documented widespread ballot stuffing and intimidation during Armenia's presidential election runoff. Human Rights Watch documented mass arrests of opposition supporters, violent dispersals of demonstrations, and raids on opposition party headquarters in April 2004. The protests derived from the government's failure to address the many violations of electoral rules documented in the 2003 presidential election. Details of Assaults

*see also Reporters Without Borders statement: Journalists physically attacked during presidential election in Armenia

Defenders of democracy in Armenia

I thought I would never see it again. It’s like 20 years ago, the same atmosphere in Yerevan. Despite all differences, in this crucial time for the future of Armenian democracy people seem united, they refuse to be intimidated by authorities. They share food, tea, they dance, they spend night in Liberty sq, they feel togetherness, exactly like it was 20 years ago.

I am proud of you, guys. I am proud of my parents. I am proud of my dad who after hearing in the morning that police announced “rally is not sanctioned by authorities” and “there may be unforeseen consequences”, instead of being intimidated, immediately went out of the flat and joined the crowd. Like thousands of you. You did not get intimidated, instead – you danced, tens of thousands of you. I am writing these words, and feel very emotional now. I feel proud of being associated with you.

You are great, people!


P.S. And it is so encouraging to see so many young people around. (photo via Hetq)

Thursday, 21 February 2008

The Winners - Liberty sq, Yerevan, Armenia

I am with you, guys!







*video via A1+

Journalists physically attacked during presidential election in Armenia

Reporters Without Borders called today for the punishment of those responsible for attacking or obstructing three journalists as they were covering the presidential election campaign in Yerevan on 19 February. “The authorities must take these incidents seriously,” it said. “The journalists were simply doing their job.”

When journalist Lusine Barsegian, of the opposition paper Haykakan Zhamanak, took photos of ballot-box stuffing and non-secret voting at a polling station, she was beaten by two men who seized her camera and dictaphone after she refused to leave. Witnesses, including a police official, failed to intervene and she was hospitalised. A legal inquiry has been opened.

Samvel Avagyan, who works for the daily [opposition] paper Hayk, had his dictaphone snatched from him when he tried to question people in a bus taking them to polling stations after being given ballot papers by police near a market.

Cameraman Ovsep Ovsepian, of the TV station A1+, was attacked as he got out of his car by thugs who seized his recordings and tried to smash his camera. He was insulted by one of the attackers who spotted a leaflet of opposition candidate Levon Ter-Petrossian in the car.

*see also Human Rights Watch statement - Armenia: Violence at Polling Stations Mars Elections

Armenia: 'Karabakh movement'-2?

I really hope that this news means that the army will be kept away "from interfering with politics and being used against people"

Breaking news

DEPUTY MINISTERS OF DEFENSE JOIN POPULAR MOVEMENT

*UPDATE: According to IA Regnum, Armenian defense minister’s press secretary Seyran Shahsuvaryan denied Ter-Petrosyan announcement about support by two deputy defense ministers (as per below) to his opposition movement. I will follow the events and will update the info as soon as possible.

*UPDATE (2): EurasiaNet - One close associate of Grigorian who said that he had attended the discussions between the general and Ter-Petrosian, affirmed the information, however. "If the people are with Levon, he is with the people," the associate, who asked not to be named, said in reference to Grigorian. "The general has always taken the side of the people." The source has told EurasiaNet that the two generals plan to address the opposition rally on February 22. If it occurs, such a move could arguably bring considerable dividends to the Ter-Petrosian campaign and encourage other groups to sign on board.

*UPDATE (3): EurasiaNet - Yet, despite the generals’ no-show [during the rally], the deputy chairman of a Nagorno Karabakh war veterans group headed by General Grigorian, [Malkhasian] maintains that the statements about the general’s support for the ex-president stand.In an interview with RFE/RL, Malkhasian also did not deny Ter-Petrosian’s assertion that the two generals are “negotiating” with the chief of army staff, Colonel-General Seyran Ohanian, to keep the military in the barracks. “Everyone is interested in a fair solution to this issue in order to avoid unnecessary clashes,” he said. “This is what all Armenian officers and generals want.”

Lragir and A1+: During the rally underway at the Square of Freedom [Liberty sq] about an hour ago Levon Ter-Petrosyan stated that yesterday he met with the deputy minister of defense, Lieutenant-General Manvel Grigoryan. Levon Ter-Petrosyan said at the time of his address, deputy defense ministers Manvel Grigoryan and Gagik Melkonyan are negotiating with the chief of the general staff of the armed force Seyran Ohanyan. The issue of the negotiation is that Manvel Grigoryan and Gagik Melkonyan state that as deputy ministers of defense they will stand beside of people.

Levon Ter-Petrosyan is convinced that the other commanders of the army will be on the side of people. He said that Manvel Grigoryan and Gagik Melkonyan stated they will prevent the army from interfering with politics and being used against people, and Manvel Grigoryan and Gagik Melkonyan are guarantors of the security of the Armenian people.

Today for the first time the deputy leader of the Yerkrapah Union of Compatriots Miasnik Malkhasyan stated that the Yerkrapah Union of Compatriots is standing beside people.

...earlier

APPEAL TO STUDENTS FOR SIT-DOWN STRIKE

Lragir: During the rally now underway at the Square of Freedom the leader of the Conservative Party of Armenia Michael Hairapetyan urged the students to go on a sitting strike. Then Levon Ter-Petrosyan addressed the rally and also urged the students to go on a sit-down strike and join the rally at 3 pm [tomorrow].

*source of photo: IA Regnum

Evidence of ballot stuffing during presidential election in Armenia recorded by mobile phone

Thanks to The Armenian Observer Blog, in case anyone had any doubts, below is the evidence of ballot stuffing during so called presidential election in Armenia.

As Observer pointed out, “We can see how a man is stuffing the ballot box, while the electoral commission members watch him without attempting to interfere or stop the illegal activity.”

It's a criminal act and a total disgrace!

U.S. expresses concern over Armenia's presidential vote count

In what could be considered a significant change of tone from that of OSCE observers' press conference, US sends a signal of serious discontent with the conduct of Armenian presidential elections. Ironically, as a basis of their "concerns", they pointed out evidence from OSCE initial report. It's becoming kind of a 'norm' for OSCE monitoring missions: they detail serious irregularities within the report, but as a headline statement deliver somewhat 'positive message' of "mostly in line with international standards". However, it must be noted that even OSCE stopped short of calling Armenian elections "free and fair."

WASHINGTON, Feb. 20 (Xinhua) - The United States expressed concern on Wednesday over alleged report of problems in the vote count in Armenia's presidential election.

A report by election observers led by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) called the election "mostly in line with international standards," according to State Department official Edgar Vazquez.

However, "We are concerned by some elements of the report, including a description of the vote-count as 'bad' or 'very bad' in 15 percent of the polling stations observed by the OSCE-led overseers," Vazquez said.

Vazquez also called on all parties in the country to remain peaceful and refrain from violence.

Vazquez made the comments after the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) of Armenia announced Wednesday that Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan won the presidential election by securing 52.86 percent of ballots in preliminary results from all 1923 polling stations.

Wednesday, 20 February 2008

Picture of the Day (2)

*Despite closed transportation routes, thousands turned out to vent their anger over yesterday’s vote.

(source of photo: Inna Mkhitaryan/ArmeniaNow)

Yerevan in 'transport blockade'

Reports from Yerevan indicate that authorities paralised and shut down all main transport means (buses, mini-buses, metro etc) to prevent - as much as they can - people from attending a rally organised by campaign team of Levon Ter-Petrosyan who refused to accept the results of what some call 'election' in Armenia.

Also, at least in one kindergarten, according to my relative - there are unconfirmed reports from others too - they refused to take children today, which many speculate is not because of safety concerns due to possible unrest but rather to prevent more people from attending opposition protests in Yerevan.

'Impressive show of power'

Picture of the Day:

*Security forces are on standby in central Yerevan as oppositionists meet to protest (photo by Photolure, via ArmeniaNow)

by John Hughes, ArmeniaNow

[...] In taking the presidency Sargsyan assumes the seat of power following a day of voting that challenged definitions of “free and fair”.

It is further expected that Armenia’s third president will take over with the begrudged blessing of western allies who once again for the sake of regional stability, will need to overlook this government’s apparent willingness to dodge democratic fundamentals – open voting and vote buying among them, as witnessed by members of this staff. (Press conferences are scheduled later today by observer missions who monitored yesterday’s process.)

To claim his landslide victory Sargsyan was aided by an army of loyalists who handed out money for votes and were accused of physically assaulting and emotionally intimidating his opposition at polling stations. Complicit, too, was State Police, who dismissed reports of such incidents as “groundless” for investigation. (To be fair, wrongdoing was not unique to the Republican Party. Ter-Petrosyan’s camp was accused of some incidents of intimidation, though in far fewer reports from sources generally sympathetic to the opposition.)

The outcome was further aided through the engagement of a British polling agency that – for the first time in Armenian elections – produced exit poll data.

The British “Populus” analysis group announced – within 45 minutes of polls closing – that Sargsyan was the run-away winner. (Conveniently, their numbers are consistent with those expected to be released by CEC.) Two giant asterisks should be attached to the group’s findings. First: the number crunchers were hired by government-run television. Second: They used data provided by the pro-government Armenian Sociological Association.

A separate poll, conducted by a coalition of Armenian non-governmental organizations, produced a considerably different outlook, giving Ter-Petrosyan 37 percent and Sargsyan 35 – a win for neither.

In a less suspicious contest, the result would likely have been close, probably forcing a Sargsyan-Ter-Petrosyan runoff. (In Armenia’s system, a candidate must get 50 percent plus one vote to win in one round.) But a runoff would not have favored Sargsyan, as his opponent might have inherited the support of other opposition candidates to amass enough votes for a second-round win.

To move from prime minister to president, Sargsyan needed a first-round win that was most easily achieved through means that may not be found in this or any other Election Code.

It is an impressive show of power. It is, too, a demonstrative prediction of what Armenians can expect for, probably, the next decade – a forceful leader with determined aspirations for what is best for his country and for himself.

Tuesday, 19 February 2008

Armenia elects President: 1st round of voting

*I have regularly updated this post throughout the day


May I just say, how much disgust I feel reading, hearing and watching reports on violations, attacks, intimidations… Sad, very sad… and shameful… As long as current authorities are in power, there will be no prospect for free elections in Armenia. There will be no prospect for democracy in Armenia, just a mockery of it.

***
A painfully true summary of what happened in Armenia today

RFE/RL: “I can’t even call this event an election,” said Stepan Safarian, a Zharangutyun [Heritage]leader who coordinated the party’s vote-monitoring activities. “In many cases, polling stations resembled a battlefield because there were constant reports of threats, violence and the most ugly forms of fraud.”

“I have monitored elections in Armenia since 1996 and have never seen anything like this before,” Safarian told reporters. “This is a disgrace for our country and this government.”

***
"HERITAGE" PROXY LAY ON BALLOT-BOX AMID ATTACKS
(A1+ reports; video via A1+)



Today a group of fellows intruded into Precinct 11/10 located in School N35 and began beating Levon Ter-Petrossian’s proxy Jora Azarian. They turned out to have stolen the seal and were trying to stuff ballots. Jora Azarian had noticed it and taken efforts to prevent their further stuffing.

The boys put to flight after noticing A1+’s camera fixed on them. When our group was leaving the precinct, they attacked the group and tried to grasp the camera. But all their efforts were doomed to failure.

A few minutes ago A1+ got an alarm that the same fellows entered the precinct and beat Jora Azarian. They again attempted to stuff ballots but Narine Azarian, representative of the “Zharangutiun” (Heritage) Party in the commission, stood in their way and lay on the ballot box.

To note, the chairman of the commission Hranush Ghazarian stated that “everything is normal in the precinct. They had observed no irregularity or violation.”

***
RFE/RL: Armenian Opposition Cries Foul Amid Reports Of Violence, Fraud

***
Presidential hopeful Arthur Baghdasaryan election campaign team claims that the “atmosphere of intimidation of people, threats and beating rules in the polling stations” (Mediamax).

His voice added also secretary of parliamentary fraction of opposition “Heritage” party (which endorses Levon Ter-Petrosyan candidacy) Stepan Safaryan stating in Yerevan today that “mass violations are registered everywhere” during the presidential elections in Armenia. Mediamax reports that Stepan Safaryan stated that the “initiators of the illegal actions are the supporters of presidential candidate, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian”. In particular, MP condemned the “mass delivery of rural residents to Yerevan polling stations and distribution of bribes at the sum of 5 thousand drams to them”.

***
Concerns re voting of the army soldiers

Panorama reports that after visiting four polling stations, the Vice President of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Anne-Marie Lizin called for consultations to discuss issues connected with the voting of the army soldiers. She did not specify the issues or what kind of consultation was needed. (photo via Panorama)

***
Business as usual in my local polling station

My local polling station in central Yerevan is one of those places where elections have never been marred by any reported irregularities. Today was no exception. Around 5pm Yerevan time my parents cast their votes. There were no queues at that time, although there was never ending flow of people to cast their votes. My parents did not notice any irregularity, everything went calm and in accordance to regulations.

Unfortunately, the situation in many polling stations right now raises concerns. And according to reports, along with a number of places elsewhere, the situation is especially worrisome in Gyumri, Abovyan and Vanadzor cities.

***
While provocations are reported from all sides, it is clear that most reported voting irregularities and violations come from people supporting prime minister and directed against opposition or non-government candidates, particularly Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

***
ArmeniaNow reports (here and here) on numerous cases of voting irregularities, including open voting in Vanadzor, ballot stuffing, assault towards journalists and proxies of candidates at polling stations. It remains to be seen how significant these and other reports are in terms of their effect on election results.

***
Radio Liberty in its afternoon broadcast confirms reports coming from various sources on incidents of bussing voters to polling stations reportedly by pro-government people.

***
People queue to vote

My friends report from many central Yerevan polling stations that turn out of voters is apparently high and they have to wait in a queue of 50-60 people to cast their votes.

***
Hetq (Investigative Journalists of Armenia) continues reporting on various voting irregularities.

***
A1+ reports that its cameraman was beaten by unknown group of drunken people. When they reported this incident to European observers’ OSCE mission in Yerevan, they’ve been told that no free observer is available.

***
Local GALA TV station recorded incidents of bribing of voters in Armenia’s second city Gyumri (Panorama; A1+)

***
Neighbours vote

My normally pessimistic neighbours (“nothing will change, as usual” was their routine phrase during all recent elections) sounded surprisingly upbeat after they cast their votes early this morning in one of central Yerevan polling stations. They were hopeful that at least this time their votes will matter. Everything was calm at the time of their voting. Too early to say, of course, but positive sign, nevertheless.

***
PM ‘not so sure’, after all?

Perhaps for the first time, and perhaps for international consumption, prime minister Serj Sargsyan discussed the possibility of second round of voting in an interview with Reuters published last night .

"If there is a second round I would prefer to fight against Levon Ter-Petrosyan," Sarksyan told Reuters on Saturday.

"It will answer many questions and will bring calm to our country ... if there is a second round and Levon Ter-Petrosyan runs, he will lose overwhelmingly," he said.

Sunday, 17 February 2008

To Winners!

Whatever happens during election day, you people – tens of thousands in Liberty sq in Yerevan, thousands in Armenian regions - are Winners for me. Today you sent the very clear message that you want and demand changes, that you are, after all, not indifferent to your future and future of Armenia… that after years of oppressing your real dreams, after years of apathy, you are sick of this hibernating state.

You were there on my behalf too. My parents, relatives, friends were there too, and I am very proud of them. I have few friends who support different direction than me, who support ‘no change’. I love them too. Armenia which I envisage should be all-inclusive society, where people of different views, and, in general, different people feel at home.

There were lots of complaints in recent period about the widespread apathy among Armenian population, which seemed impossible to change. Even his fierce critics had to admit that Ter-Petrosyan made that impossible possible. If only for that, for awakening, I’d like to thank our first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

Saturday, 16 February 2008 saw the largest pre-election rally of people who came by their own wish, not by the pressure of administrative resources or by pop concert incentive. Some say “tens of thousands”, some – “hundreds of thousands”. I do not care about exact estimates. What is more important for me is that for people who were out there it felt like hundreds of thousands, it felt like 1988 – exactly 20 yrs ago. Time passes so quickly, it’s like it was yesterday, when I was among you marching, rallying. Hoping for better, and actually gaining that chance for better, independence, defending and securing Karabakh, building up democracy, then disappointing and sinking into the state of apathy…

I wish I am with you now, but it’s only physical distance. My mind, my heart is with all and each of you. I hope your dreams, my dreams for change, for better won’t be brutally oppressed again. This time it has to be different. I do not want to wait another 20 years, I do not want to see your soul broken. Mine will be broken too. I want to wake up next day proud and hopeful.

'Super Tuesday'

I recommend this excellent piece from the editor of ArmeniaNow John Hughes which sums up perfectly my thoughts:

“The prospect of change breeds hope. It is why college kids in America back Barack Obama and why middle-class parents of college kids in Armenia will vote for Ter-Petrosyan.

Hope stirs the buzz, and the Ter-Petrosyan campaign has it again after a week during which it received the blessing of the Heritage Party – an endorsement that could be worth up to 200,000 votes – significant in a pool of 2.3 million from which 1.15 million plus 1 would secure a victory (if the entire registration voted).

It is hope darkened by deceit but reawakened in hearts such as the woman who was in our newsroom Wednesday.

She told about campaigners coming to her door, offering her 5,000 drams (about $16) if she would vote for Sargsyan [prime minister – Unzipped].

“Who can I turn to, to report them?” the woman asked. Painfully, the answer is no one. To do so would only worsen her circumstances.

Well meaning people here are fed up with such arrogant and insulting behavior, and know they can expect at least five more years of it under a Republican Party-led government.

[…] Armenia needs new direction. It may take an old face to turn it that way. Just so, given the chance, Ter-Petrosyan keeps the promise he’s made to get out of the way as soon as the course has been steadied and a new captain empowered to steer the Ship of State."

*photo by Photolure, via ArmeniaNow

Friday, 15 February 2008

Even in Czech Republic...

I was pretty shocked and disheartened to read the news that "Czech Republic President Vaclav Klaus has been re-elected by legislators, in a knife-edge vote reportedly marred by threats, bribes and corruption." I would have expected this from other Eastern European countries, like Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, which became part of EU mainly for political reasons rather than their compliance with ‘EU values’. I must admit, however, that even in some founding member-states the situation with democracy and human rights is deteriorating. Take a France, for example...

"The BBC's Rob Cameron in Prague says it took two elections, six rounds of voting and a week of intense campaigning, during which time a number of lawmakers were reportedly targeted by threats and blackmail. The mafia-style pressure tactics of the last week will leave observers wondering just how far Czech political culture has fallen". More...

Sounds familiar, isn’t it? You just need to change “Czech Republic” with…

How successful EU could be in promoting democracy elsewhere if it cannot do so even among its own member-states?

BBC Radio 4 presents somehow depressing side of routine life in Armenian capital amid upcoming presidential elections


It does not directly touch presidential elections (just a mention at the beginning), but rather presents a kind of background picture of routine life and changes through the eyes of a local resident. A bit too pessimistic, in my opinion, but anyway.

Below are selected extracts. Full transcript is available here

[…] A product of the old Soviet-style education system, Armine speaks five languages, has an engineering degree, and plays the cello expertly.

When I first met her on a visit to Armenia three years ago, she dreamed of setting up a music school for children.

She was fiercely proud of being Armenian and admonished me for my ignorance about the achievements of her people.

Now the talk is only of property and becoming rich.

"It's like so many other places in the old Soviet Union. We gained freedom but somehow we have lost our soul," says Armine.

"The Russians, once again, control most of the economy while gangsters and oligarchs swank about in their limousines and fancy jewellery, all powerful.

"The politicians are hopeless, only filling up their own pockets.

"It's a country that's going nowhere. I just want to make my money and leave."

[…] As Jewish families might buy a second home in Israel, so the Armenian diaspora - present in virtually every major city in the world and many of them extremely wealthy - are buying houses and apartments in Yerevan and the prices keep rising.

[…] The Soviet era was not known for great architecture but old Yerevan had a pleasant, intimate feel.

It is sad to see it disappearing.

The diaspora buys but does not stay, says Armine.

"Meanwhile, locals find they can no longer afford to live here. One day, this could become an empty city."

*photo via BBC

Vintage (Soviet) election posters

For people’s happiness!


Workers and peasants,
One and all - to elections!

Under the red banner,
Along with men,
We bring on fear to bourgeoisie!


*posters via davno.ru

Thursday, 14 February 2008

Arthur the loser, or the best hope for prime minister Serj Sargsyan

It was expected that Orinats Yerkir opposition party would announce today that they support Ter-Petrosyan and join opposition coalition with Levon and Raffi.

Panorama reports that they just announced that Arthur Baghdasaryan will consider the possibility of joining the opposition bloc only after the first round of votes.

He lost his best chance to prove that he is genuinely interested in forming united opposition bloc against current authorities, when he refused quitting the race before 9 February deadline. He now lost his second best chance, and whatever happened during second round of voting, in my eyes he lost credibility of genuine opposition politician. There were always lots of speculations around Arthur questioning his real motives. He now proved that people who were cautious in taking his words seriously had all the right reasons to do so.

My only suspicion is that Arthur ‘plans’ to pass the first round of voting, and this would be the best option for current authorities too, since they would be able to claim that elections were fair and one of their “fierce critics” was able to pass the first round. In that case they would be able to divide opposition camp and diminish the impact of possible protests from electorate and criticism from international community.

Taking into account the seriousness of situation and the fact that government seems to lose ground ahead of elections, the best hope for prime minister Serj Sargsyan may come from his “fierce critic” Arthur Baghdasaryan.

I hope this scenario will not get materialised.

Wednesday, 13 February 2008

Officers of the National Security Service of Armenia resign in support of Ter-Petrosyan

Since last week I keep hearing rumours from here and there about growing support within government and civil servants towards former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan. However, except few examples from governing Republican party, there was no other evidence, just rumours.

Today during his campaign rally in southeastern Armenia Ter-Petrosyan claimed that “there is growing support from government and law-enforcement bodies”, “state bodies with us”, “at least 90 percent of the staffs of security bodies, ministries are with the people”, and “more than 50 employees of the National Security Service (NSS) have refused to “work against their own people” in next week’s election and resigned from the former KGB in recent days.”

My first reaction was that well, ok, there may be some support, but it’s probably more of a propaganda trick aimed at providing reassurances to electorate and stirring further divisions and tensions within government which seems to increasingly lose ground.

However, I got confirmations via friend that at least several officers of the National Security Service of Armenia, whom he knows and spoke with today, have resigned, and they confirmed the growing trend. Also, one pro-government source accepted today that the situation is indeed very serious for prime minister Serj Sargsyan and no one in government camp expected the level of support Levon would gain.

Tuesday, 12 February 2008

History in making: Opposition unites behind Levon Ter-Petrosyan ahead of presidential elections in Armenia

In what could be considered the most significant development ahead of presidential elections in Armenia, one of the main and arguably most respected opposition party led by former foreign minister Raffi Hovhannisyan declared his support of Ter-Petrosyan’s bid for presidency. There are already reflections of this news in Armenian blogs (here and here).

The only option left for Arthur Baghdasaryan, leader of another opposition party and presidential hopeful, is to declare formally his support for Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Although I think that the best option for him would have been quitting the race before the formal deadline of 9 February, since his name will now remain in ballot papers and this may confuse some voters, but Arthur has now second best chance. As I predicted before, this coalition is the most likely and practical way to challenge current authorities. Sources from Baghdasaryan’s camp assured me few days ago that he supports Levon and is behind him and will declare it by 14 February. We now have to wait for formal confirmation. Any other turn of events would be very damaging for Arthur if he wants to retain his status as credible opposition politician.

I've made my position clear in one of my earlier posts and now want to confirm my support for Levon Ter-Petrosyan candidacy. It is now not a simple choice between prime minister Serj Sargsyan and former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan. It’s now a choice between ‘no change’ (Serj) and ‘possibility of change’ (Levon with Raffi and others). I choose change!