'Impressive show of power'

Picture of the Day:

*Security forces are on standby in central Yerevan as oppositionists meet to protest (photo by Photolure, via ArmeniaNow)

by John Hughes, ArmeniaNow

[...] In taking the presidency Sargsyan assumes the seat of power following a day of voting that challenged definitions of “free and fair”.

It is further expected that Armenia’s third president will take over with the begrudged blessing of western allies who once again for the sake of regional stability, will need to overlook this government’s apparent willingness to dodge democratic fundamentals – open voting and vote buying among them, as witnessed by members of this staff. (Press conferences are scheduled later today by observer missions who monitored yesterday’s process.)

To claim his landslide victory Sargsyan was aided by an army of loyalists who handed out money for votes and were accused of physically assaulting and emotionally intimidating his opposition at polling stations. Complicit, too, was State Police, who dismissed reports of such incidents as “groundless” for investigation. (To be fair, wrongdoing was not unique to the Republican Party. Ter-Petrosyan’s camp was accused of some incidents of intimidation, though in far fewer reports from sources generally sympathetic to the opposition.)

The outcome was further aided through the engagement of a British polling agency that – for the first time in Armenian elections – produced exit poll data.

The British “Populus” analysis group announced – within 45 minutes of polls closing – that Sargsyan was the run-away winner. (Conveniently, their numbers are consistent with those expected to be released by CEC.) Two giant asterisks should be attached to the group’s findings. First: the number crunchers were hired by government-run television. Second: They used data provided by the pro-government Armenian Sociological Association.

A separate poll, conducted by a coalition of Armenian non-governmental organizations, produced a considerably different outlook, giving Ter-Petrosyan 37 percent and Sargsyan 35 – a win for neither.

In a less suspicious contest, the result would likely have been close, probably forcing a Sargsyan-Ter-Petrosyan runoff. (In Armenia’s system, a candidate must get 50 percent plus one vote to win in one round.) But a runoff would not have favored Sargsyan, as his opponent might have inherited the support of other opposition candidates to amass enough votes for a second-round win.

To move from prime minister to president, Sargsyan needed a first-round win that was most easily achieved through means that may not be found in this or any other Election Code.

It is an impressive show of power. It is, too, a demonstrative prediction of what Armenians can expect for, probably, the next decade – a forceful leader with determined aspirations for what is best for his country and for himself.

Armenia elects President: 1st round of voting

*I have regularly updated this post throughout the day


May I just say, how much disgust I feel reading, hearing and watching reports on violations, attacks, intimidations… Sad, very sad… and shameful… As long as current authorities are in power, there will be no prospect for free elections in Armenia. There will be no prospect for democracy in Armenia, just a mockery of it.

***
A painfully true summary of what happened in Armenia today

RFE/RL: “I can’t even call this event an election,” said Stepan Safarian, a Zharangutyun [Heritage]leader who coordinated the party’s vote-monitoring activities. “In many cases, polling stations resembled a battlefield because there were constant reports of threats, violence and the most ugly forms of fraud.”

“I have monitored elections in Armenia since 1996 and have never seen anything like this before,” Safarian told reporters. “This is a disgrace for our country and this government.”

***
"HERITAGE" PROXY LAY ON BALLOT-BOX AMID ATTACKS
(A1+ reports; video via A1+)



Today a group of fellows intruded into Precinct 11/10 located in School N35 and began beating Levon Ter-Petrossian’s proxy Jora Azarian. They turned out to have stolen the seal and were trying to stuff ballots. Jora Azarian had noticed it and taken efforts to prevent their further stuffing.

The boys put to flight after noticing A1+’s camera fixed on them. When our group was leaving the precinct, they attacked the group and tried to grasp the camera. But all their efforts were doomed to failure.

A few minutes ago A1+ got an alarm that the same fellows entered the precinct and beat Jora Azarian. They again attempted to stuff ballots but Narine Azarian, representative of the “Zharangutiun” (Heritage) Party in the commission, stood in their way and lay on the ballot box.

To note, the chairman of the commission Hranush Ghazarian stated that “everything is normal in the precinct. They had observed no irregularity or violation.”

***
RFE/RL: Armenian Opposition Cries Foul Amid Reports Of Violence, Fraud

***
Presidential hopeful Arthur Baghdasaryan election campaign team claims that the “atmosphere of intimidation of people, threats and beating rules in the polling stations” (Mediamax).

His voice added also secretary of parliamentary fraction of opposition “Heritage” party (which endorses Levon Ter-Petrosyan candidacy) Stepan Safaryan stating in Yerevan today that “mass violations are registered everywhere” during the presidential elections in Armenia. Mediamax reports that Stepan Safaryan stated that the “initiators of the illegal actions are the supporters of presidential candidate, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian”. In particular, MP condemned the “mass delivery of rural residents to Yerevan polling stations and distribution of bribes at the sum of 5 thousand drams to them”.

***
Concerns re voting of the army soldiers

Panorama reports that after visiting four polling stations, the Vice President of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Anne-Marie Lizin called for consultations to discuss issues connected with the voting of the army soldiers. She did not specify the issues or what kind of consultation was needed. (photo via Panorama)

***
Business as usual in my local polling station

My local polling station in central Yerevan is one of those places where elections have never been marred by any reported irregularities. Today was no exception. Around 5pm Yerevan time my parents cast their votes. There were no queues at that time, although there was never ending flow of people to cast their votes. My parents did not notice any irregularity, everything went calm and in accordance to regulations.

Unfortunately, the situation in many polling stations right now raises concerns. And according to reports, along with a number of places elsewhere, the situation is especially worrisome in Gyumri, Abovyan and Vanadzor cities.

***
While provocations are reported from all sides, it is clear that most reported voting irregularities and violations come from people supporting prime minister and directed against opposition or non-government candidates, particularly Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

***
ArmeniaNow reports (here and here) on numerous cases of voting irregularities, including open voting in Vanadzor, ballot stuffing, assault towards journalists and proxies of candidates at polling stations. It remains to be seen how significant these and other reports are in terms of their effect on election results.

***
Radio Liberty in its afternoon broadcast confirms reports coming from various sources on incidents of bussing voters to polling stations reportedly by pro-government people.

***
People queue to vote

My friends report from many central Yerevan polling stations that turn out of voters is apparently high and they have to wait in a queue of 50-60 people to cast their votes.

***
Hetq (Investigative Journalists of Armenia) continues reporting on various voting irregularities.

***
A1+ reports that its cameraman was beaten by unknown group of drunken people. When they reported this incident to European observers’ OSCE mission in Yerevan, they’ve been told that no free observer is available.

***
Local GALA TV station recorded incidents of bribing of voters in Armenia’s second city Gyumri (Panorama; A1+)

***
Neighbours vote

My normally pessimistic neighbours (“nothing will change, as usual” was their routine phrase during all recent elections) sounded surprisingly upbeat after they cast their votes early this morning in one of central Yerevan polling stations. They were hopeful that at least this time their votes will matter. Everything was calm at the time of their voting. Too early to say, of course, but positive sign, nevertheless.

***
PM ‘not so sure’, after all?

Perhaps for the first time, and perhaps for international consumption, prime minister Serj Sargsyan discussed the possibility of second round of voting in an interview with Reuters published last night .

"If there is a second round I would prefer to fight against Levon Ter-Petrosyan," Sarksyan told Reuters on Saturday.

"It will answer many questions and will bring calm to our country ... if there is a second round and Levon Ter-Petrosyan runs, he will lose overwhelmingly," he said.

To Winners!

Whatever happens during election day, you people – tens of thousands in Liberty sq in Yerevan, thousands in Armenian regions - are Winners for me. Today you sent the very clear message that you want and demand changes, that you are, after all, not indifferent to your future and future of Armenia… that after years of oppressing your real dreams, after years of apathy, you are sick of this hibernating state.

You were there on my behalf too. My parents, relatives, friends were there too, and I am very proud of them. I have few friends who support different direction than me, who support ‘no change’. I love them too. Armenia which I envisage should be all-inclusive society, where people of different views, and, in general, different people feel at home.

There were lots of complaints in recent period about the widespread apathy among Armenian population, which seemed impossible to change. Even his fierce critics had to admit that Ter-Petrosyan made that impossible possible. If only for that, for awakening, I’d like to thank our first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

Saturday, 16 February 2008 saw the largest pre-election rally of people who came by their own wish, not by the pressure of administrative resources or by pop concert incentive. Some say “tens of thousands”, some – “hundreds of thousands”. I do not care about exact estimates. What is more important for me is that for people who were out there it felt like hundreds of thousands, it felt like 1988 – exactly 20 yrs ago. Time passes so quickly, it’s like it was yesterday, when I was among you marching, rallying. Hoping for better, and actually gaining that chance for better, independence, defending and securing Karabakh, building up democracy, then disappointing and sinking into the state of apathy…

I wish I am with you now, but it’s only physical distance. My mind, my heart is with all and each of you. I hope your dreams, my dreams for change, for better won’t be brutally oppressed again. This time it has to be different. I do not want to wait another 20 years, I do not want to see your soul broken. Mine will be broken too. I want to wake up next day proud and hopeful.

'Super Tuesday'

I recommend this excellent piece from the editor of ArmeniaNow John Hughes which sums up perfectly my thoughts:

“The prospect of change breeds hope. It is why college kids in America back Barack Obama and why middle-class parents of college kids in Armenia will vote for Ter-Petrosyan.

Hope stirs the buzz, and the Ter-Petrosyan campaign has it again after a week during which it received the blessing of the Heritage Party – an endorsement that could be worth up to 200,000 votes – significant in a pool of 2.3 million from which 1.15 million plus 1 would secure a victory (if the entire registration voted).

It is hope darkened by deceit but reawakened in hearts such as the woman who was in our newsroom Wednesday.

She told about campaigners coming to her door, offering her 5,000 drams (about $16) if she would vote for Sargsyan [prime minister – Unzipped].

“Who can I turn to, to report them?” the woman asked. Painfully, the answer is no one. To do so would only worsen her circumstances.

Well meaning people here are fed up with such arrogant and insulting behavior, and know they can expect at least five more years of it under a Republican Party-led government.

[…] Armenia needs new direction. It may take an old face to turn it that way. Just so, given the chance, Ter-Petrosyan keeps the promise he’s made to get out of the way as soon as the course has been steadied and a new captain empowered to steer the Ship of State."

*photo by Photolure, via ArmeniaNow

Even in Czech Republic...

I was pretty shocked and disheartened to read the news that "Czech Republic President Vaclav Klaus has been re-elected by legislators, in a knife-edge vote reportedly marred by threats, bribes and corruption." I would have expected this from other Eastern European countries, like Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, which became part of EU mainly for political reasons rather than their compliance with ‘EU values’. I must admit, however, that even in some founding member-states the situation with democracy and human rights is deteriorating. Take a France, for example...

"The BBC's Rob Cameron in Prague says it took two elections, six rounds of voting and a week of intense campaigning, during which time a number of lawmakers were reportedly targeted by threats and blackmail. The mafia-style pressure tactics of the last week will leave observers wondering just how far Czech political culture has fallen". More...

Sounds familiar, isn’t it? You just need to change “Czech Republic” with…

How successful EU could be in promoting democracy elsewhere if it cannot do so even among its own member-states?

BBC Radio 4 presents somehow depressing side of routine life in Armenian capital amid upcoming presidential elections

It does not directly touch presidential elections (just a mention at the beginning), but rather presents a kind of background picture of routine life and changes through the eyes of a local resident. A bit too pessimistic, in my opinion, but anyway.

Below are selected extracts. Full transcript is available here

[…] A product of the old Soviet-style education system, Armine speaks five languages, has an engineering degree, and plays the cello expertly.

When I first met her on a visit to Armenia three years ago, she dreamed of setting up a music school for children.

She was fiercely proud of being Armenian and admonished me for my ignorance about the achievements of her people.

Now the talk is only of property and becoming rich.

"It's like so many other places in the old Soviet Union. We gained freedom but somehow we have lost our soul," says Armine.

"The Russians, once again, control most of the economy while gangsters and oligarchs swank about in their limousines and fancy jewellery, all powerful.

"The politicians are hopeless, only filling up their own pockets.

"It's a country that's going nowhere. I just want to make my money and leave."

[…] As Jewish families might buy a second home in Israel, so the Armenian diaspora - present in virtually every major city in the world and many of them extremely wealthy - are buying houses and apartments in Yerevan and the prices keep rising.

[…] The Soviet era was not known for great architecture but old Yerevan had a pleasant, intimate feel.

It is sad to see it disappearing.

The diaspora buys but does not stay, says Armine.

"Meanwhile, locals find they can no longer afford to live here. One day, this could become an empty city."

*photo via BBC

Vintage (Soviet) election posters

For people’s happiness!

Workers and peasants,
One and all - to elections!

Under the red banner,
Along with men,
We bring on fear to bourgeoisie!

*posters via davno.ru

Arthur the loser, or the best hope for prime minister Serj Sargsyan

It was expected that Orinats Yerkir opposition party would announce today that they support Ter-Petrosyan and join opposition coalition with Levon and Raffi.

Panorama reports that they just announced that Arthur Baghdasaryan will consider the possibility of joining the opposition bloc only after the first round of votes.

He lost his best chance to prove that he is genuinely interested in forming united opposition bloc against current authorities, when he refused quitting the race before 9 February deadline. He now lost his second best chance, and whatever happened during second round of voting, in my eyes he lost credibility of genuine opposition politician. There were always lots of speculations around Arthur questioning his real motives. He now proved that people who were cautious in taking his words seriously had all the right reasons to do so.

My only suspicion is that Arthur ‘plans’ to pass the first round of voting, and this would be the best option for current authorities too, since they would be able to claim that elections were fair and one of their “fierce critics” was able to pass the first round. In that case they would be able to divide opposition camp and diminish the impact of possible protests from electorate and criticism from international community.

Taking into account the seriousness of situation and the fact that government seems to lose ground ahead of elections, the best hope for prime minister Serj Sargsyan may come from his “fierce critic” Arthur Baghdasaryan.

I hope this scenario will not get materialised.

Officers of the National Security Service of Armenia resign in support of Ter-Petrosyan

Since last week I keep hearing rumours from here and there about growing support within government and civil servants towards former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan. However, except few examples from governing Republican party, there was no other evidence, just rumours.

Today during his campaign rally in southeastern Armenia Ter-Petrosyan claimed that “there is growing support from government and law-enforcement bodies”, “state bodies with us”, “at least 90 percent of the staffs of security bodies, ministries are with the people”, and “more than 50 employees of the National Security Service (NSS) have refused to “work against their own people” in next week’s election and resigned from the former KGB in recent days.”

My first reaction was that well, ok, there may be some support, but it’s probably more of a propaganda trick aimed at providing reassurances to electorate and stirring further divisions and tensions within government which seems to increasingly lose ground.

However, I got confirmations via friend that at least several officers of the National Security Service of Armenia, whom he knows and spoke with today, have resigned, and they confirmed the growing trend. Also, one pro-government source accepted today that the situation is indeed very serious for prime minister Serj Sargsyan and no one in government camp expected the level of support Levon would gain.

History in making: Opposition unites behind Levon Ter-Petrosyan ahead of presidential elections in Armenia

In what could be considered the most significant development ahead of presidential elections in Armenia, one of the main and arguably most respected opposition party led by former foreign minister Raffi Hovhannisyan declared his support of Ter-Petrosyan’s bid for presidency. There are already reflections of this news in Armenian blogs (here and here).

The only option left for Arthur Baghdasaryan, leader of another opposition party and presidential hopeful, is to declare formally his support for Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Although I think that the best option for him would have been quitting the race before the formal deadline of 9 February, since his name will now remain in ballot papers and this may confuse some voters, but Arthur has now second best chance. As I predicted before, this coalition is the most likely and practical way to challenge current authorities. Sources from Baghdasaryan’s camp assured me few days ago that he supports Levon and is behind him and will declare it by 14 February. We now have to wait for formal confirmation. Any other turn of events would be very damaging for Arthur if he wants to retain his status as credible opposition politician.

I've made my position clear in one of my earlier posts and now want to confirm my support for Levon Ter-Petrosyan candidacy. It is now not a simple choice between prime minister Serj Sargsyan and former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan. It’s now a choice between ‘no change’ (Serj) and ‘possibility of change’ (Levon with Raffi and others). I choose change!

Serj Superstar

This is simply hilarious.

As heard on the Radio Liberty - 10 February 2008, main evening programme:

(children – pupils – making their way to the rally of prime minister and presidential hopeful Serj Sargsyan in Kotayk region of Armenia):

Reporter: Where are you going?

Children: To a concert.

Reporter: Whose concert is it?

Children: Serj Sargsyan’s.

***
All rallies of Serj Sargsyan are accompanied by Armenian pop ‘stars’. Normally, all schools within the vicinity (and not only schools, but other organisations too, even hospitals in some cases) are ‘ordered’ to close down or ‘take a break’ and make sure that employees/students attend the concert-rally.

Western media on presidential election campaign in Armenia: Not interested?

In contrast with Georgia, so far western media does not seem to show interest in covering presidential elections in Armenia. Only last night, perhaps for the first time during this pre-election period, BBC News 24 TV channel very briefly within its headlines mentioned as they put it "huge opposition rally in Armenia" (referring to Levon Ter-Petrosyan's rally) showing video footage from Liberty sq in Yerevan.

I assume their interest will grow closer to election date, but still this is very indicative sign of differing attitudes towards 'pro-Western' Georgia and 'pro-Russian' Armenia.

Levon Ter-Petrosyan: gaining momentum

This was the most successful rally of former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Participants of the rally told me that Liberty sq and surrounding areas were full of people, and they reckon it was the most attended rally in recent years. This time people from much varied backgrounds and more young people attended too. Interestingly, some of the people who were in the rally said that they somehow felt the atmosphere of 88s when Karabakh movement just started and eventually brought Levon and others to power. Most significantly, while substantial proportion of people in prime minister and presidential hopeful Serj Sargsyan rallies are ‘ordered’ to attend using all sort of administrative pressures and resources, here people come because they want to come.

As to the unification of opposition leaders behind Levon Ter-Petrosyan, according to sources in Arthur Baghdasaryan’s Orinats Erkir opposition party, Arthur is behind Levon, negotiations are still in process and they will announce their support by 14th of February. The reasoning behind this is the desire to use campaigning, including by TV channels, as full as possible. At least, that’s what I’ve been told. I am not sure whether it’s right to wait, instead of announcing it now, but let’s see.

Next rally will be on 16 February, at 3pm, in Liberty sq.



*video via A1+

Burnt archives

The building of Ministry of Justice in Armenia has been burnt down this morning. It may be pure accident - fire, nothing more, but with all those burnt archives and documents there are only rhetorical questions to ask...

*source of photo: A1+

‘Levon-traitor’ leaflets in Yerevan amid news on another violence against his supporters

Just received a call from very close person of mine. The way she described the situation in Yerevan sounds very disturbing, indeed. According to her, at least in Yerevan State Pedagogical University - and I assume in others too - there were lots of leaflets everywhere this morning accusing former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan in being “traitor” who will “sell our country” and urging people not to attend his tomorrow’s rally in a central Yerevan.

Meanwhile, new reports on violence against Ter-Petrosyan supporters came out this morning suggesting that at least three of his supporters were beaten (one seriously) overnight for distributing leaflets on upcoming rally in one of the Yerevan districts by people allegedly connected with a local campaign manager of prime minister Serj Sargsyan.


These reports came just days after violence erupted against former president rally and amid increasingly biased coverage of these events by Public TV’s main “Haylur” news programme.

*source of photo: A1+

Election monitors, like polls: Do we trust them?

International election observers, particularly those from various European structures, used to be considered by people living in countries which struggle with the establishment of democratic institutions as an important tool to limit potential electoral fraud and to grant legitimacy to those who got elected, be that President or MP.

However, recent developments in the region and particularly Georgia, cast serious doubts on political motivations of observers’ decisions. Well, there was always a suspicion of it, but what happened in Georgia was so blatant that could lead to serious breach of credibility towards the whole system.

Immediately after the Georgian presidential elections, they declared that the elections ‘generally met standards’, thus giving so much desired legitimacy to Georgian president Saakashvili. Then, soon after they published a report detailing serious irregularities, which under any other circumstances should have cast serious doubts on the conduct of election. And now a senior US representative in the region Matthew Bryza, who previously endorsed the elections, warns that Georgian elections could not be considered as a good example for others. So why did not they shout about before? Why now, when their “concerns” do not worth a penny? Was it because of Saakashvili’s “pro-Western” status? Rhetorical question, indeed.

We are just 2 weeks away from presidential elections in Armenia. What happened in Georgia has already seriously damaged observers’ reputation. In order for observers to regain it, they have to behave like proper independent observers, regardless of vague “pro-Russian” or “pro-Western” labels. Their preliminary conclusion, which is normally made the day after the election, should not differ substantially from final one. If they are not sure, they’d rather wait few more days and then declare their findings which are very important in terms of acceptance and legitimacy of the results. Otherwise, they risk equalling their reputation to that of polls in Armenia. Nothing could be more damaging.

P.S. On a kind of bizarre note, via Reporter_arm, below is a clip with John Prescott, head of PACE observation mission in Armenia for upcoming presidential election. During his own election campaign in Britain back in 2001, he (then deputy prime minister) actually punched one protester who threw eggs towards him.

Ter-Petrosyan under attack

Today, during former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s rally in Artashat, a group of people (allegedly connected with Hovik Abrahamyan, campaign manager of prime minister Serj Sargsyan) attacked the participants of the rally, aiming directly at Ter-Petrosyan too, and hit them with stones and bottles. According to A1+ reports, Ter-Petrosyan escaped injuries, but among injured is his bodyguard.

Levon Ter-Petrosyan is in police station now demanding investigation and considering this as an attempt of assassination.

Follow the news via A1+

Video update via A1+:



...and now those 2 female ‘agent provocateur’ – they were spotted by local residents and recorded by A1+ crew just before the rally begins. Particularly, local residents alleged that these 2 females received money to trigger provocation here, which at the end was ‘successfully’ accomplished, as recorded by A1+ cameraman.


*photos by Photolur, via A1+ and RFE/RL

Love messages for very different 'Valentine'

Apparently, during one of his rallies (or may be not only one) – broadcast by TV – prime minister Serj Sargsyan finished his campaign speech with very distinctive and memorable “I love you”. Now a number of Armenian TV and radio channels (including Public TV) broadcast ‘love messages’ by Armenian ‘stars’ devoted to country, family, husband, children, friend etc etc and always ending with very distinctive “I love you”. No direct reference to presidential election campaign, of course.

Decisive rally?

Yerevan, Liberty square, 9 February 2008

Organisers of former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan rally promise important announcements that may cardinally change the turn of events.

The rally will be held in Liberty sq, at 3pm, on 9 February 2008 - a deadline for any candidate to formally withdraw from the presidential race, and thus the last chance for opposition to unite before the first round of votes.

* see also here and here

"Threats of assassination" amid almost imminent declaration of united opposition

"Threats of assassination"

Head of opposition party Orinats Erkir, presidential hopeful Arthur Baghdasaryan claimed during the rally of many thousands of his supporters in Yerevan that last night he received threats of assassination. No further details were provided. He said that if something happened to his life, the direct responsibility for that will lie on current authorities.

Declaration of united opposition seems imminent

Arthur Baghdasaryan confirmed news on intensive negotiations between him, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Raffi Hovhannisyan on forming a united opposition bloc ahead of presidential elections and hinted that next rally will be a rally of united opposition. He did not specify details of that coalition, indicating that the negotiations are in process now. I wrote about this scenario few days ago and consider it the most likely and most desirable turn of events (see my post Window of opportunity: Will opposition unite ahead of presidential elections in Armenia?).