History in making: Opposition unites behind Levon Ter-Petrosyan ahead of presidential elections in Armenia

In what could be considered the most significant development ahead of presidential elections in Armenia, one of the main and arguably most respected opposition party led by former foreign minister Raffi Hovhannisyan declared his support of Ter-Petrosyan’s bid for presidency. There are already reflections of this news in Armenian blogs (here and here).

The only option left for Arthur Baghdasaryan, leader of another opposition party and presidential hopeful, is to declare formally his support for Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Although I think that the best option for him would have been quitting the race before the formal deadline of 9 February, since his name will now remain in ballot papers and this may confuse some voters, but Arthur has now second best chance. As I predicted before, this coalition is the most likely and practical way to challenge current authorities. Sources from Baghdasaryan’s camp assured me few days ago that he supports Levon and is behind him and will declare it by 14 February. We now have to wait for formal confirmation. Any other turn of events would be very damaging for Arthur if he wants to retain his status as credible opposition politician.

I've made my position clear in one of my earlier posts and now want to confirm my support for Levon Ter-Petrosyan candidacy. It is now not a simple choice between prime minister Serj Sargsyan and former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan. It’s now a choice between ‘no change’ (Serj) and ‘possibility of change’ (Levon with Raffi and others). I choose change!

Serj Superstar

This is simply hilarious.

As heard on the Radio Liberty - 10 February 2008, main evening programme:

(children – pupils – making their way to the rally of prime minister and presidential hopeful Serj Sargsyan in Kotayk region of Armenia):

Reporter: Where are you going?

Children: To a concert.

Reporter: Whose concert is it?

Children: Serj Sargsyan’s.

***
All rallies of Serj Sargsyan are accompanied by Armenian pop ‘stars’. Normally, all schools within the vicinity (and not only schools, but other organisations too, even hospitals in some cases) are ‘ordered’ to close down or ‘take a break’ and make sure that employees/students attend the concert-rally.

Western media on presidential election campaign in Armenia: Not interested?

In contrast with Georgia, so far western media does not seem to show interest in covering presidential elections in Armenia. Only last night, perhaps for the first time during this pre-election period, BBC News 24 TV channel very briefly within its headlines mentioned as they put it "huge opposition rally in Armenia" (referring to Levon Ter-Petrosyan's rally) showing video footage from Liberty sq in Yerevan.

I assume their interest will grow closer to election date, but still this is very indicative sign of differing attitudes towards 'pro-Western' Georgia and 'pro-Russian' Armenia.

Levon Ter-Petrosyan: gaining momentum

This was the most successful rally of former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Participants of the rally told me that Liberty sq and surrounding areas were full of people, and they reckon it was the most attended rally in recent years. This time people from much varied backgrounds and more young people attended too. Interestingly, some of the people who were in the rally said that they somehow felt the atmosphere of 88s when Karabakh movement just started and eventually brought Levon and others to power. Most significantly, while substantial proportion of people in prime minister and presidential hopeful Serj Sargsyan rallies are ‘ordered’ to attend using all sort of administrative pressures and resources, here people come because they want to come.

As to the unification of opposition leaders behind Levon Ter-Petrosyan, according to sources in Arthur Baghdasaryan’s Orinats Erkir opposition party, Arthur is behind Levon, negotiations are still in process and they will announce their support by 14th of February. The reasoning behind this is the desire to use campaigning, including by TV channels, as full as possible. At least, that’s what I’ve been told. I am not sure whether it’s right to wait, instead of announcing it now, but let’s see.

Next rally will be on 16 February, at 3pm, in Liberty sq.



*video via A1+

Burnt archives

The building of Ministry of Justice in Armenia has been burnt down this morning. It may be pure accident - fire, nothing more, but with all those burnt archives and documents there are only rhetorical questions to ask...

*source of photo: A1+

‘Levon-traitor’ leaflets in Yerevan amid news on another violence against his supporters

Just received a call from very close person of mine. The way she described the situation in Yerevan sounds very disturbing, indeed. According to her, at least in Yerevan State Pedagogical University - and I assume in others too - there were lots of leaflets everywhere this morning accusing former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan in being “traitor” who will “sell our country” and urging people not to attend his tomorrow’s rally in a central Yerevan.

Meanwhile, new reports on violence against Ter-Petrosyan supporters came out this morning suggesting that at least three of his supporters were beaten (one seriously) overnight for distributing leaflets on upcoming rally in one of the Yerevan districts by people allegedly connected with a local campaign manager of prime minister Serj Sargsyan.


These reports came just days after violence erupted against former president rally and amid increasingly biased coverage of these events by Public TV’s main “Haylur” news programme.

*source of photo: A1+

Election monitors, like polls: Do we trust them?

International election observers, particularly those from various European structures, used to be considered by people living in countries which struggle with the establishment of democratic institutions as an important tool to limit potential electoral fraud and to grant legitimacy to those who got elected, be that President or MP.

However, recent developments in the region and particularly Georgia, cast serious doubts on political motivations of observers’ decisions. Well, there was always a suspicion of it, but what happened in Georgia was so blatant that could lead to serious breach of credibility towards the whole system.

Immediately after the Georgian presidential elections, they declared that the elections ‘generally met standards’, thus giving so much desired legitimacy to Georgian president Saakashvili. Then, soon after they published a report detailing serious irregularities, which under any other circumstances should have cast serious doubts on the conduct of election. And now a senior US representative in the region Matthew Bryza, who previously endorsed the elections, warns that Georgian elections could not be considered as a good example for others. So why did not they shout about before? Why now, when their “concerns” do not worth a penny? Was it because of Saakashvili’s “pro-Western” status? Rhetorical question, indeed.

We are just 2 weeks away from presidential elections in Armenia. What happened in Georgia has already seriously damaged observers’ reputation. In order for observers to regain it, they have to behave like proper independent observers, regardless of vague “pro-Russian” or “pro-Western” labels. Their preliminary conclusion, which is normally made the day after the election, should not differ substantially from final one. If they are not sure, they’d rather wait few more days and then declare their findings which are very important in terms of acceptance and legitimacy of the results. Otherwise, they risk equalling their reputation to that of polls in Armenia. Nothing could be more damaging.

P.S. On a kind of bizarre note, via Reporter_arm, below is a clip with John Prescott, head of PACE observation mission in Armenia for upcoming presidential election. During his own election campaign in Britain back in 2001, he (then deputy prime minister) actually punched one protester who threw eggs towards him.

Ter-Petrosyan under attack

Today, during former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s rally in Artashat, a group of people (allegedly connected with Hovik Abrahamyan, campaign manager of prime minister Serj Sargsyan) attacked the participants of the rally, aiming directly at Ter-Petrosyan too, and hit them with stones and bottles. According to A1+ reports, Ter-Petrosyan escaped injuries, but among injured is his bodyguard.

Levon Ter-Petrosyan is in police station now demanding investigation and considering this as an attempt of assassination.

Follow the news via A1+

Video update via A1+:



...and now those 2 female ‘agent provocateur’ – they were spotted by local residents and recorded by A1+ crew just before the rally begins. Particularly, local residents alleged that these 2 females received money to trigger provocation here, which at the end was ‘successfully’ accomplished, as recorded by A1+ cameraman.


*photos by Photolur, via A1+ and RFE/RL

Love messages for very different 'Valentine'

Apparently, during one of his rallies (or may be not only one) – broadcast by TV – prime minister Serj Sargsyan finished his campaign speech with very distinctive and memorable “I love you”. Now a number of Armenian TV and radio channels (including Public TV) broadcast ‘love messages’ by Armenian ‘stars’ devoted to country, family, husband, children, friend etc etc and always ending with very distinctive “I love you”. No direct reference to presidential election campaign, of course.

Decisive rally?

Yerevan, Liberty square, 9 February 2008

Organisers of former president and presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan rally promise important announcements that may cardinally change the turn of events.

The rally will be held in Liberty sq, at 3pm, on 9 February 2008 - a deadline for any candidate to formally withdraw from the presidential race, and thus the last chance for opposition to unite before the first round of votes.

* see also here and here

"Threats of assassination" amid almost imminent declaration of united opposition

"Threats of assassination"

Head of opposition party Orinats Erkir, presidential hopeful Arthur Baghdasaryan claimed during the rally of many thousands of his supporters in Yerevan that last night he received threats of assassination. No further details were provided. He said that if something happened to his life, the direct responsibility for that will lie on current authorities.

Declaration of united opposition seems imminent

Arthur Baghdasaryan confirmed news on intensive negotiations between him, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Raffi Hovhannisyan on forming a united opposition bloc ahead of presidential elections and hinted that next rally will be a rally of united opposition. He did not specify details of that coalition, indicating that the negotiations are in process now. I wrote about this scenario few days ago and consider it the most likely and most desirable turn of events (see my post Window of opportunity: Will opposition unite ahead of presidential elections in Armenia?).

Armenian teenager seeking asylum in the UK?

I am very confused about this story which I saw few minutes ago on British TV (BBC News 24). How and exactly why this 16 yrs old Armenian teenager came to the UK and is seeking asylum (and according to new government regulations may well face deportation). No proper info or reason is provided in this article from BBC website either. Something does not seem quite right to me, something very important is missing in this teenager’s story. I wonder if anyone from Armenia or British Armenian community would be able to clarify the situation and perhaps provide some kind of support to this guy? I wonder what exactly happened to this guy in Armenia and the UK? Here is the ‘story’, very weird... The way this teenager tells his story reminiscent of human trafficking related stories, but can’t speculate further because have no any basis for that, just a thought.

*source of this story and photos: BBC

'I'm happy in this country'

As the government announces that unaccompanied youngsters - denied the right to stay in this country - will now be deported, Aram, who came to Britain from Armenia, tells in his own words the story of his journey to the UK.

"My name is Aram. I am 16 years old. I came in this country 10 months ago.

When I came in this country, someone take me to social services - some adviser from Refugee Council. When they take me to Refugee Council, I met one man who take me to hotel.

In the hotel, I stay nearly two weeks. And in that two weeks, I was getting everything I need in social care. After two to three weeks, a lady called me. A Russian lady was interpreting.

They talked to me and they were very rude to me. I asked for water because I felt bad when I was talking about my life.

They said they had no water. It was very hard for me. After two hours, I was feeling very bad, they go out - after 15 minutes they said 'we think you're 18 years old'.

And they take me to [word unintelligible] and I was crying so much, I didn't know where to go or what to do.

After that a man took me to a hotel and it was very hard for me because I don't know how to cook, I don't know how to look after myself and I was very bad. I was crying too much and I tried to do bad things to me, I was scared too much.

So after that I made Refugee Council - I was coming here all the time, I live here because they never leave me. And I am very happy for them, because this is my family - a very big family.

I like people, I love people - I'm very happy in this country, because this country is peace - no-one attacks no-one, everybody lives, no-one can take your life for nothing.

And I'm very happy for these people, because these people they help me so much.

I'm very young and I want to be useful. I don't want to be very bad people, I want to help people because I can. I don't want to waste time sitting at home. I decided to come and help them, so I want to be very useful.

I don't like war, I don't like when people die. I like this country too much, because in this country people don't die. In this country I learnt to play football -I went to Refugee Council team in Kennington Park [south London]. Every Friday we're playing football and I'm very happy for this.

I love books, I have two library cards. I'm learning English and I'm learning books."

Window of opportunity: Will opposition unite ahead of presidential elections in Armenia?

The most likely scenario at the moment:

Orinats Erkir opposition party leader and presidential hopeful Arthur Baghdasaryan is declaring his support for former Armenian president Levon Ter-Petrosyan (there was significant hint on such possibility from Baghdasaryan’s team). It is not likely that another opposition figure and presidential hopeful Vazgen Manukyan will join this bloc. Then Raffi Hovhannisyan is urging his supporters to vote for this newly formed alliance. In this case, this bloc is becoming the most real and powerful challenge to current regime with very real chances to win in case of fair elections. With all my reservations, I would definitely support this bloc.

Prospects for presidential hopeful from the nationalist ARF Dashnaktsutyun party Vahan Honhannisyan in terms of uniting opposition figures around him are not looking very likely at the moment. Well, there is possibility of Vazgen Manukyan declaring his support for Vahan Hovhannisyan. However, even if this happens, poll ratings for Vazgen Manukyan are pretty low, and other than morale boost (important but not enough), it won’t bring Hovhannisyan sufficient number of additional voters to ensure his success during elections.

This is how I see the situation based on analysis of current developments. If opposition figures eventually decide to unite during the second round of elections only, it will significantly weaken their chances to win. Of course, there is always a possibility of failure to unite at all, in which case anyone wanting change in Armenia will lose this unique window of opportunity for perhaps another 5-10 years.

Aravot newspaper: Routine homophobia on ‘behalf’ of Armenian bloggers

an attempt of an open letter to Armenian bloggers especially within the LiveJournal community

see Unzipped: Gay Armenia

Armenian Genocide Monument desecrated on Holocaust Memorial Day

Turkish protesters disrupt Holocaust and Hrant Dink Commemorations

Only few days ago, organisers warned of possible Turkish attempts to disrupt the Holocaust and Hrant Dink Commemoration event planned to be held in Cardiff (Wales, UK) at recently erected Armenian Genocide Memorial. Particularly, their press release indicated that "Hal Savas and his "Committee for the Protection of Turkish Rights" has told the South Wales police that they intend to protest nearby." However, the reality they encountered was uglier than it was thought would be.

*source of photo: BBC

Below is the press release received from the Wales-Armenia Solidarity (with the support of Nor Serount Cultural Association).

27 January 2008

The tiny Welsh Armenian community were targeted with a despicable racist attack on Holocaust Memorial Day. The new Armenian Genocide Monument (which was erected by the community under the leadership of John Torosyan in November) was desecrated in the early hours of the morning before important ceremonies were held today to Commemorate the Holocaust, and to remember Hrant Dink. The ornate Armenian Cross on the monument was smashed to bits by persons unknown using a hammer, which was left at the scene of the crime.

One of the Welsh Armenians said:"This is our holiest shrine. Our grandparents who perished in the Genocide do not have marked graves. This is where we remember them"

Eilian Williams of Wales Armenia Solidarity said that he blamed the so-called "Committee for the Protection of Turkish Rights" britishcptr@aol.com under the leadership of Hal Savas (mobile number 07770302822) for the crime. The police took the hammer for fingerprints.

He continued:"I call on Armenians and other sympathisers throughout the world to send messages of support to Wales Armenia Solidarity (eilian@nant.wanadoo.co.uk ) which we can send to the Prime Minister of the National Assembly of Wales. We shall repair the cross again and again no matter how often it is desecrated. We also challenge the UK government and the Turkish Embassy to condemn this racist attack.

The Holocaust commemoration was a gesture of friendship by Welsh Armenians towards the Jewish and Roma communities .

Eminent Welshman Robin Gwyndaf prayed in Welsh and English. The Assembly Member Jenny Randerson called on the UK government to recognise the Armenian Genocide .

During the Prayers for the Holocaust victims, the said Turkish Committee used a loud-speaker to disrupt proceedings.

Finally, Martin Shipton, chief reporter for the "Western Mail" the national newspaper of Wales gave his tribute to Hrant Dink (also representing the National Union of Journalists). The Turkish protesters also disrupted his speech.
***

I am re-posting 2 photos from my previous post of Armenian Genocide memorial which was unveiled in Cardiff on 3 November 2007. Racists will not succeed in their attempts!



*source of photos: www.accc.org.uk

Serj Tankian - Feed Us

Director: Sevag Vrej

This is the 4th single and music video from "Elect the Dead" solo album of Serj.

1st single and music video "The Unthinking Majority" - here
2nd single and music video "Empty Walls" - here
3rd single and music video "Saving Us" - here

...and now banks

Russia's Gazprombank buys Armenia's Areximbank

Balanced media coverage marks Day 1 of presidential election campaign in Armenia

I am referring here to TV stations – the most accessible and mainstream media in Armenia. For the first time in years, Armenians witnessed what should have been something routine and unexceptional – balanced media coverage. There was no need to wait for 7pm (Radio Liberty) or morning newspapers (although both means are important and invaluable) to learn non-biased news on election campaign of opposition candidates or witness balanced coverage.

This was particularly true for former Armenian president, current presidential hopeful Levon Ter-Petrosyan who is considered the main challenger of ruling regime and whose informal pre-election campaign so far attracted more negative than even neutral coverage:

"In December on the Armenian air the negative references to the first RA President Levon Ter-Petrosian continue to dominate. In other words, during the last month of 2007 the unprecedented phenomenon, recorded in November, continued when the share of neutral editorial coverage of an Armenian politician quantitatively fell behind that of negative: 103 negative references to Levon Ter-Petrosian versus 100 neutral ones and 4 positive ones. At the same time the share of negative ones in the total number of references has somewhat gone down in December - 49.8% versus 58.7% - in November. "

Another presidential hopeful Artur Baghdasaryan was complaining of unofficial boycott imposed towards his campaign and persona by Armenian TV channels, which are overwhelmingly under government influence and control.

Anyway, today was a different story - Armenian media behaved as it should have behaved always. If it only continues this trend over the whole election period and beyond... Media monitoring by international and local agencies played important role in putting pressure on government and Public TV via mainly European/US influential bodies, and is as vital as ever to ensure continuous fair coverage of presidential campaign.

Remembering Hrant Dink

1st anniversary of assassination of Turkish-Armenian journalist
London, 19 January 2008

It was small and intimate ceremony right outside the Westminster Abbey, in the heart of London. The place chosen to mark the anniversary of slain Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink was very appropriate for the occasion - the Monument to the Innocent Victims of Oppression, Violence, War.

There were speeches and tributes by representatives of Armenian, Kurdish and Turkish communities. The event was organised by a number of Armenian organisations in London.

In this video from the ceremony - tribute to Hrant Dink by a representative of Turkish community. (Sorry for the quality of sound, there was no loudspeakers there, and this was all I could get from my camera)

There was singing towards the end of the ceremony and release of doves in memory of Hrant. The song was Khatchatur Pilikian's tribute to Hrant Dink. It was very symbolic - Liberty poem by Mikael Nalbandyan (music by Tigran Tchukhadjyan). Organisers distributed a leaflet with English version of the poem. There was very interesting info there I had no idea about:

"Rendered into English, titled as Liberty, by the great artist, writer and translator, Zabelle Boyajian (b. Diarbekir, 1872, d. London, 1957), the first woman artist exhibiting her one-woman show in London; the author of the first epic poem/play, in the English language, of the Sumerian epic, Gligamesh, 1926."

Liberty poem by Mikael Nalbandyan (translated by Zabelle Boyajian) was so appropriate to mark the anniversary of Hrant Dink's assasination, that I decided to re-post it here:

When the God of Liberty
Formed of earth this mortal frame,
Breathed the breath of life in me,
And a spirit I became,

Wrapped within my swaddling bands,
Bound and fettered helplessly,*
I stretched forth my infant hands
To embrace sweet Liberty.

All night long, until the dawn,
In my cradle bound I lay;
And my sobbing's ceaseless moan
Drove my mother's sleep away.

As I begged her, weeping loud,
To unbind and set me free;
From that very day I vowed
I would love thee, Liberty!

*Armenian babies are tied tightly into their cradles when they are put to sleep (Boyajian's own asterisk/notes)

***
A year after the killing of Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink, the BBC's Sarah Rainsford in Istanbul finds that the Turkish nationalism he challenged remains a potent force.
"Why was I chosen as a target?" More...

Thousands of people have gathered in the Turkish city of Istanbul to commemorate the murder last year of ethnic Armenian journalist Hrant Dink. More...

***
see also Unzipped: Gay Armenia

US cancels 'Exit Poll' proposal for presidential elections in Armenia

I was very positive re news that for the first time US offered conducting exit poll for presidential elections in Armenia and Armenian government green lighted that idea. However, mistrust towards local organisation(s) who were supposed to conduct exit poll made this good idea eventually cancelled.

"After intensive and detailed discussions with interested parties regarding a proposal to conduct exit polling in Armenia during the 2008 presidential elections, the International Republican Institute (IRI) and Baltic Surveys Ltd/Gallup Organization were unable to resolve all of the detailed procedural questions in a way that was fully satisfactory to all sides. Consequently, the U.S. Embassy and USAID have decided to cancel the project.

We continue to think that, in principle, exit polling can be a useful instrument for enhancing the transparency and credibility of elections. In this particular case, however, given the limited preparation time remaining prior to the February 19 election and the questions raised from various parts of the political spectrum, we decided it would be wiser not to go forward with a project that faced implementation problems and risked becoming an unhelpful distraction in the Armenian political debate."

While I consider this news as BAD news, in general, in relation to democratisation of elections in Armenia, I must admit that in current circumstances it is probably good idea. Unless US and others administer exit poll via truly independent agency, its conduct, instead of positive outcomes, would lead to something completely negative, fuelling speculations and eventually discrediting the whole idea behind the exit polls.

There is also another lesson from this whole ‘exit poll’ and other ‘pre-election poll’ stories. Mistrust towards all sort of polls in Armenia is so high (and conveniently so for many parties) that it’s almost impossible to get people accept the results, even in case of independent conduct of polls or (theoretical) clean elections.